Lavrov discussed grain deal with Erdogan and Cavusoglu

On April 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara. The key topics of discussion were agreements on the export of grain from the ports of southern Ukraine (“grain deal”), extended on March 14 at the insistence of Moscow instead of 120 for 60 days, until May 18 (Turkey will hold general presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14). This was reported by the press service of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

At a press conference, Lavrov recalled: “If there is no further progress in removing obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers and grain, then we will think about whether this deal is necessary.” He noted that in case of non-fulfillment of the terms of the deal regarding the export of Russian products, “let them continue to ship the relevant products from Ukraine by land, by land, by rail, by rivers.” According to him, then Russia will work outside of this initiative, including with Turkey and Qatar.

The Turkish view on the grain deal turned out to be more optimistic. As follows from the message on the website of the press service of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, at the closed part of the meeting between Lavrov and Cavusoglu, the Turkish minister once again stated that “the success of the Istanbul grain deal showed that diplomacy works and that Turkey will spare no effort to achieve a just and lasting peace “.

Also, the topics of discussion were the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and the normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations with the participation of Russia and Iran. In addition, Lavrov discussed with the Turkish top leadership issues of humanitarian assistance in connection with the earthquake that occurred in Turkey in February, as well as the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant with Russian participation and the creation of a Russian-Turkish gas hub.

Another point was the interaction between Moscow and Ankara in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, in which the Turkish side is a partner of Baku.

Russia, despite its strongly declared dissatisfaction and reproaches for not fulfilling its conditions, actually decided to extend the deal in many ways in the form of a kind of political “support” for Erdogan until the elections in Turkey, recalls Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs. Despite the incumbent’s high ratings, his rival, opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is “aligning” with him in support of the electorate, the expert says. Although the opposition also emphasized the importance of agreements on the export of grain from the southern Ukrainian ports, Semyonov notes.

Since the deal expires around the Turkish general elections, Russia needs to again convey its demands to partners with whom the dialogue has already been established, since then the negotiations may be difficult, Alena Vernigora, a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS, said.

In general, everything goes to the point that Russia is trying to change in negotiations with Turkey [условия сделки]or adjust in their favor, or at least use Ankara as a lever to fulfill their part of the agreements on the export of fertilizers, which did not work, Semyonov notes.

The second important aspect is the settlement of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here, Russia seeks to maintain its position as a security broker and demonstrate this to its allies, Vernigora notes.

Moscow and Ankara agree in their desire, as stated, to prevent third countries – the active EU and partly the United States in this direction – from resolving the Karabakh problem and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, adds Semenov. Also, the points of intersection of the Turkish and Russian sides is the desire to resolve Ankara’s relations with Damascus, including with the involvement of Iran, which is allied to the Syrians, like Russia. It is also important to take new steps here, for example, to organize a quadripartite meeting of deputy foreign ministers, postponed from March 2023 and now announced for next week, the expert recalls.