Lame ducks are counted in autumn – Newspaper Kommersant No. 152 (7353) of 08/22/2022

Several governors, whose powers expire in September 2023, have already announced their desire to keep their posts. Basically, these are representatives of the opposition: communists Valentin Konovalov and Andrey Klychkov, right-wing Russian Alexander Burkov. But United Russia began to announce plans for re-election in advance: for example, Voronezh Governor Alexander Gusev announced this. According to experts, in this way, leaders who are uncertain about their future are trying to avoid the status of a “lame duck” and at the same time signal to the Kremlin that they are ready to keep their posts.

The head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov, announced his intention to run for a new term at a meeting with residents of Sorsk last week. “Closer to the election date, there will be an understanding of whether there is trust from the people, whether there is trust in the president. Then the final decision will be made. But in general, I want to say: yes, I plan to,” he answered the question of a local resident about plans for re-election.

This statement was made against the backdrop of a large-scale “reset” of the republican government, which the head of Khakassia initiated in early August. Due to “unsatisfactory work”, he dismissed the ministers of education and social protection, his deputy in charge of the social bloc, and also made a number of changes in the structure of the executive power of the region. “We have a lot of work to do in completely new, rapidly changing conditions,” the communist himself explained the reshuffle.

Valentin Konovalov is one of 21 governors whose powers expire in 2023, and one of three oppositionists who managed to defeat United Russia in the 2018 elections. To date, of this trinity, only the head of Khakassia has retained his powers: Khabarovsk liberal democrat Sergei Furgal was arrested in 2020 on charges of organizing murders, and his Vladimir Sipyagin, his fellow party member, moved to the State Duma in 2021. Experts regularly predicted the early resignation of Mr. Konovalov, but so far it has not happened.

Among the governors elected in 2018, there is another representative of the Communist Party – the head of the Oryol region Andrei Klychkov. Unlike his Khakass colleague, he took his post with the full support of the federal authorities: in October 2017, President Vladimir Putin appointed him as acting head of the region, and in the 2018 elections, United Russia did not put forward their candidate against him. Nevertheless, the possibility of the early resignation of the Oryol communist has also been discussed for several years. The governor’s press service habitually refutes these conversations, explaining that “he is not going anywhere” and will run for a second term. A Kommersant source close to Mr. Klychkov assures that the presidential administration has no complaints against him and has allegedly already given the go-ahead for his re-election. Andrey Klychkov himself is now paying active attention to the special operation in Ukraine: he sends “parcels to the soldier” and goes to the front himself.

The third governor from the opposition, whose powers expire next year, Omsk Social Revolutionary Alexander Burkov, also outlined plans for a new term in advance and in April 2021 said that he “sees himself as governor” until September 2028. “That is, if Omsk residents support me in 2023,” he said. Mr. Burkov, like Andrei Klychkov, received the post of head of the region with the support of Vladimir Putin. Previously, experts explained to Kommersant that the prolongation of the powers of all three governors from the opposition would depend on agreements between the presidential administration and their parties, and not on the personal desire of the heads of the regions themselves.

Meanwhile, United Russia governors are already beginning to talk about their intention to be re-elected. So, at the end of July, the head of the Voronezh region, Alexander Gusev, told local journalists that he had “both the strength and the desire” for a second term. “I am 59 years old. Only. I have only been working for ten years in positions that directly affect many processes, ”he explained, adding that he would publish the final decision “when the time comes” – in November-December.

The governor did not specifically promote the topic of the second term, a Kommersant source in the regional government assures: “The journalist asked, the governor answered. Gusev is confident in himself despite any stuffing, the presidential administration approves of his actions: the other day, his report on assistance to the sponsored areas of the LPR was positively assessed at a working meeting with the head of the presidential department for domestic policy Andrei Yarin.

It is worth noting, however, that just in October-November, the traditional autumn rotation of governors usually begins, under which, theoretically, any head of the region can fall. And the early announcement of plans for re-election does not guarantee their approval by the presidential administration. For example, the now former Ryazan governor Nikolai Lyubimov was going to continue his gubernatorial career. “My whole life path is aimed at this,” he said in December 2021, but already in May 2022 he ceded the post of acting governor to Pavel Malkov.

We add that the majority of the 21 leaders in 2023 expires the first term of office, and only three – the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin, the heads of the Moscow region and Chukotka Andrey Vorobyov and Roman Kopin – the second. Previously, the federal law limited the powers of the governor to two terms, but the new law on public authority lifted this ban. None of the trio has yet spoken about their plans.

According to political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko, the main risk for any governor before the expiration of his term is to turn into a “lame duck”: must be done.— “b”). I always recommend this to my clients: there is nothing worse than turning into a person whose departure everyone is waiting for and begins to share his chair.

Political scientist Rostislav Turovsky agrees that the statements of the governors cannot be interpreted as confidence in re-election: “Many people do not yet have any guarantees that the Kremlin will support them. This is a desire to demonstrate that at least there is a willingness to continue to lead the region.” According to the expert, by indirect signs it is already clear that many heads have begun to prepare for the election campaign. “There are many governors, there will obviously be a rotation, and not all of them will remain. In this regard, advance preparation is a signal to the Kremlin,” the political scientist sums up.

Andrey Prakh, corset “Kommersant”