Kremlin experts have discovered a theoretical threat of second rounds in the gubernatorial elections in four regions

In the elections this year, the degree of mutual criticism of the participants in the electoral process will be reduced, which means that representatives of the authorities will have an advantage in the elections. This is stated in the report of the experts of the Civil Society Development Fund (FORGO), which was reviewed by Vedomosti.

Nevertheless, in the gubernatorial elections in the Altai Territory, Yakutia and the Krasnoyarsk Territory, a second round could theoretically take place in the fall, according to the FORGO report. The second round is also possible in the elections in Khakassia. In this republic, State Duma deputy Sergei Sokol (“United Russia”) is nominated against the current governor Valentin Konovalov (KPRF).

“We are talking about the potential of the second rounds, and not about what they will definitely be. They are possible if the opposition parties nominate strong candidates and if United Russia helps them overcome the municipal filter,” said Konstantin Kostin, head of the FORGO. In the meantime, one can speak directly about the threat of the second round in Khakassia, in the other three subjects “there is potential” for the development of a competitive scenario, he notes.

For example, the FORGO admits difficulties for the acting governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Mikhail Kotyukov, due to the fact that LDPR deputies won the municipal elections in Krasnoyarsk. It is from this party that experts see a threat: a deputy of the Legislative Assembly Alexander Gliskov can be a strong candidate. Alexei Didenko, deputy head of the LDPR faction in the State Duma, told Vedomosti that Gliskov is indeed one of the main candidates, but a decision on the candidate has not yet been made – the supreme council will be determined next week.

The governor of the Altai Territory, Viktor Tomenko, was elected in 2018 with the lowest result – 53.6%, despite the fact that there was no candidate from the Communist Party among his rivals, the FORGO report says. “Electoral failures” haunted him in the future, experts say: in 2021, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation achieved success in the Duma elections and in the elections to the Legislative Assembly in the region. And although the head of Yakutia, Aisen Nikolaev, was elected with a more convincing result (71.40%), the positions of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are also strong in the region.

In the Altai Territory, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation can nominate State Duma deputy Maria Prusakova, and in Yakutia – deputy Pyotr Ammosov. Both communists are highly famous and popular, the report notes. “According to Prusakova and Konovalov, there is already a decision that the party will nominate them for elections,” Yury Afonin, the first deputy chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, told Vedomosti.

But in the Altai Territory, one of the highest municipal filters – more than 500 signatures. And in Yakutia, the party activists are inclined to nominate the first secretary of the Yakut Republican Committee, Viktor Gubarev. Afonin neither confirmed nor denied this information, only adding that no decision had yet been made on Yakutia.

The conclusions about the threats of the second rounds are reinsurance and a warning for some of the current heads to act more actively, said Rostislav Turovsky, vice president of the Center for Political Technologies. “The second round in Khakassia is predictable in the event of a struggle between the communist leader and a strong United Russia party. In other cases, everything depends on the presence of strong competitors, but they may not be,” says Turovsky.

This year’s elections are notable, among other things, for the fact that exactly five years ago, during the last election cycle, United Russia failed to win in the first round in several regions at once. Among them are the Primorsky Territory (Oleg Kozhemyako eventually won there after the rescheduling of the elections), the Khabarovsk Territory, the Vladimir Region and Khakassia.

Of the then elected opposition heads, only Konovalov remained. Khabarovsk governor Sergei Furgal (LDPR) was arrested in 2020 on charges of organizing murders and attempted murder, and his fellow party member Vladimir Sipyagin left the post of head of the Vladimir Region in 2021 and moved to the State Duma.

ForGO, apparently, takes into account the electoral history in the regions, but in order for the second rounds to appear, a competitive campaign and political activity of voters are needed, says political scientist Alexander Kynev. Now the basic scenario is a low turnout, when those who are dissatisfied do not go to the polls. The opposition, on the other hand, is playing giveaway almost everywhere, and it is hard to imagine that it will wage a real struggle, he added.