Kissinger’s “knight’s move” will allow Beijing and Washington to jump over the accumulated contradictions
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What initiatives did the centennial patriarch announce at the “imperial” banquet in Beijing
Henry Kissinger’s stay in China this time was the brightest event in US-China relations in the 21st century. The most significant figures of the Beijing leadership, including Xi Jinping, met with him. So far, one can only guess about the content of the conversations, although “leaks” from both sides may follow in the near future. But one cannot fail to note the deliberately solemn ceremonies with which the centenary diplomat’s visit was arranged. The unprecedented banquet at the Diaoyutai Reception House was held at the imperial level, which neither American, nor Soviet, nor Russian leaders were awarded. Bronze from the everyday life of Qianlong, the famous Emperor of the Qing Dynasty, special auspicious decorations such as a huge peach – a symbol of longevity, table compositions in the form of pine trees, cranes and stylized hieroglyphs of the same meaning, not to mention the exquisite palace menu, made the huge table an ongoing exhibition of gastronomic diplomacy. Not without reason, before the start of the banquet, an unprecedented video filming was organized, which spread around the Chinese and foreign networks.
Xi Jinping addressed Kissinger with the words, “In your 100 years of life, you have visited China 100 times.” Thus, he brought his interlocutor out of the hierarchy of modern political figures and introduced him to the rank of “immortal saints”, so revered in the Celestial Empire. Bidens and Trumps, Blinkens and Yellens come and go. They can be ignored, like the current US President and his Secretary of Defense. They can be allowed brief audiences like Blinken and Yellen. But Beijing has already realized that there is nothing to seriously talk about with the figures of the current administration. These are narrow-minded people, their horizons end at the borders of presidential terms.
Kissinger is different. He has always been associated with serious figures and forces capable of unexpected insights and fateful deeds. Kissinger helped President Richard Nixon realize the initially vague idea of normalizing relations with China in order to further oppose the USSR. Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing in 1971 enabled Nixon to meet with Mao Zedong the following year, which ultimately changed the course of twentieth-century history. The height of the turmoil of the “cultural revolution”, the illness and death of Mao Zedong delayed the formalization of the Sino-American “marriage of convenience”. It was completed in 1979, already under President Jimmy Carter, when Deng Xiaoping visited Washington. His proposal to create a “global anti-hegemonic front” ensured the anti-Soviet partnership between the PRC and the United States for several decades. The transition of China to the side of the West forced Moscow to prepare for a war on two fronts, which was one of the reasons for the weakening and collapse of the Soviet Union.
The fantastic success of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” allowed China to close the economic gap with the West and raised the question of changing roles in the “marriage of convenience”. Already in 2009, President Barack Obama suggested that Beijing should stand almost on a par with Washington in governing the world and create a G2 structure. However, this “almost” did not suit President Hu Jintao. His successor Xi Jinping made a counteroffer to the Americans at the very beginning of his time in power. But first, he traveled to Moscow in March 2013 and established a personal rapport with Vladimir Putin. With this trump card, Xi Jinping soon went to meet with Barack Obama and proposed establishing a “new type of great power relationship.” This first of the strategic initiatives of the Chinese leader provided for the complete equality of Beijing and Washington, and therefore turned out to be unacceptable to the Americans. Since then, the containment of China has steadily increased, entering the phase of a full-fledged “cold war” already under President Donald Trump.
The trade war launched in 2018 coincided with the covid pandemic. In addition to these “black swans”, Beijing received a technological blockade, a “color revolution” in Hong Kong, unrest in Xinjiang. The long-term peaceful and mutually beneficial “status quo” in China’s relations with its rebellious province of Taiwan was violated by the Americans by expanding arms supplies and inciting the separatist ruling party to finally separate from China. Started by Trump and reinforced by Biden, the Cold War has hurt China’s development. But it was not possible to knock down the Celestial Empire from the ascending trajectory of the “great revival of the Chinese nation” outlined by Xi Jinping. But the enmity with China exacerbated the problems in America itself.
The need for positivity on the eve of the impending presidential election is forcing the Biden administration to start looking for some kind of compromise with China. Hence the requests to receive in Beijing either Secretary of State Blinken, or Secretary of the Treasury Yellen, or Special Representative for Climate Kerry or Secretary of Commerce Raimondo. These guests were welcomed, but without the warmth they once were, and intended only to bring bilateral relations back to the point of negotiations between Xi Jinping and Biden in Bali last November. Contacts on these “tracks” were disrupted by the American opponents of “detente” due to the scandal around the “big white ball”. Chinese outrage reached the point where Xi Jinping refused to talk to Biden over the phone. The prospect of a new meeting is now looming thanks to visits by senior Washington administration officials to Beijing. If the next “black swans” or “gray rhinos” do not appear, then the two leaders will talk at the G20 summit in Delhi or the APEC summit in San Francisco. However, even in the case of more or less decent results of such communication, there is no question of achieving a breakthrough. The maximum is to prevent clashes in the Taiwan area and keep at least the current level of confrontation under control until November 5, 2024.
The upcoming US presidential election gives Washington and Beijing an opportunity to start, if not a new chapter, then at least a new page in their relationship. This, most likely, was discussed at Kissinger’s meetings in the entourage of the “imperial” banquet. Perhaps he laid out something similar to the initiative that made it possible to start a way out of the American-Chinese enmity of the 50s and 60s of the last century? For example, once again “surrender” Taiwan under the pretext of winning the presidential elections in early 2024 by the Kuomintang party, which advocates the unity of China. Or the abolition of tariffs on exports from China, introduced by Trump in 2018. Or some other “concession” that actually returns bilateral relations to the state of 2013. The idea put forward by Xi Jinping at the time of “new great power relations” in the new conditions could suit both America and China. In a new, strong position, Beijing can afford to show peacefulness and far-sightedness, provided that the principles of equality and respect for each other’s interests are respected. Xi Jinping now, like Mao Zedong then, enjoys a sufficient resource of power and authority to abruptly shift the helm of politics. Kissinger’s initiatives can help both Washington and Beijing make a “knight’s move” and jump over the accumulated contradictions.
Inevitably, the question arises about the place of Moscow in the layouts of the Washington elder. The solution of bilateral problems at its expense looks extremely unlikely. The current strong position of China in the world and in relations with the United States is largely due to the new Sino-Russian relations. So they became the implementation of the strategy of “new relations of the great powers.” Despite the 10-fold excess of China’s economy over ours, relations between Beijing and Moscow are indeed equal and mutually beneficial, devoid of any signs of interference in each other’s affairs. Even in the unlikely event that Washington recognizes equal status with Beijing, Russia-China relations will be necessary to maintain balance. They will move on a course of strategic partnership and combat coordination. This course meets the national interests of both neighboring powers and equally strengthens their position in the world.
Newspaper headline:
Knight’s move from Henry Kissinger
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