Kazakhstan has closed the road to Russia for sanctioned goods: what will happen to imports

Astana averted suspicions of supporting Moscow

Kazakhstan has limited the export of 106 types of goods to Russia. As Vice Minister of Trade Kairat Torebaev told reporters, the moratorium on supplies was introduced due to fears of falling under the second wave of anti-Russian sanctions. However, it is quite possible that Astana is simply trying to juggle its economic and political potential. Either the country is really afraid of Western sanctions, or this is an elementary “screen”: the Kazakhs show solidarity with the economic blockade of Russia to the Western world, but in reality they do not stop cooperating with our country.

A moratorium on exports to Russia of a wide range of goods appears to have not yet been officially confirmed. As the press service of the Ministry of Trade and Integration of the Republic reported, the relevant information is incorrect, and “no bans on the export of any goods to the Russian Federation were established in connection with anti-Russian sanctions.”

However, information about the development of a law restricting the export of 106 military goods to Russia clearly did not appear by chance. The West hinted to Astana a few months ago that the consequences of violating their sanctions would be severe: the restrictions that affected Russia would now also affect Kazakhstan. In other words, Western countries threatened to take a closer look at Kazakh exports of “black gold” in order to cut off Astana’s profitable export at the right time. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has promised that his country will “unequivocally” follow sanctions against Russia, so Western countries need not worry. With questions about what consequences our economy might face if Kazakhstan actually limits some of its export supplies, MK turned to industry experts.

Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets:

“The restrictions will affect spare parts for drones, chips and other special electronics. Taking into account the fact that Russia itself cannot produce these products, restrictions will apply to both Kazakh goods and transit cargo, which will complicate the work of Russian industry. At the same time, official Astana has repeatedly stated that sanctions pressure on Russia is unproductive, and assured that it still adheres to the course of full cooperation with Moscow. It is obvious that Kazakhstan is forced to demonstrate a certain level of loyalty to the West in order to maintain its position in the international arena.”

Artem Shakhurin, expert at IVA Partners:

“In Kazakhstan, a number of electronics industry enterprises have remained since Soviet times, partially continuing cooperation with the Russian defense industry, as well as several enterprises that were subsequently opened jointly with Western partners. These companies are working, among other things, on the production of drones and components for aerospace production. Details of their activities are hidden. How many and what goods from the sanctioned categories do these enterprises supply to Russia? were never advertised. However, these supplies are hardly significant.

It is worth considering that Kazakhstan has established close financial and economic ties not only with Russia, but also with the West and China. Astana has to pursue a very flexible policy so as not to lose any of its partners and investors. At the same time, the issue of supplying chips and components for UAVs to Russia is not so important for both countries that they would make extra efforts to circumvent restrictions.”

Vladislav Antonov, financial analyst at BitRiver:

“The restrictions imposed by Kazakhstan on the supply of goods to Russia affected mainly military and dual-use products. There should not be any significant shortages in other industries due to these restrictions. Most likely, Kazakhstan’s actions are dictated by the desire to avoid secondary Western sanctions. The Kazakh economy is closely connected with Russia, so it is impossible to completely stop cooperation. But the official position of Kazakhstan is compliance with the sanctions regime. Trade with Russia in a number of areas will likely continue, but will be less noticeable so as not to provoke accusations of circumventing sanctions.”