Kaczynski’s party may lose power in Poland

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk announced the possibility of forming a government following the results of the parliamentary elections on October 15. A similar statement was made immediately after the publication of the exit poll results. “We can already say today that this is the end of the power of Law and Justice.” We won democracy, freedom, our Poland,” Tusk said on the night of October 16.

According to the National Election Commission of Poland, after processing 66% of the ballots for the Sejm elections, PiS had 37.47%, the Civic Coalition had 28.63%, the Third Way had 14.43%, and the Left had – 8.31%, “Confederation” – 7.28% of the votes. Turnout, according to the election commission, was a record 71.99%. Thus, PiS’s opponents (“Civil Coalition”, “Third Way” and “Left”) gained more than 51% of the votes, but how this would affect the distribution of mandates was not yet clear at the time the number was submitted. In the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, voting is carried out according to a proportional system; it is the Sejm that approves the government by a simple majority.

PiS also declared victory. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called his party’s third victory in a row “historic.” According to Morawiecki, Polish President Andrzej Duda will instruct him to form a government, since “this is the political tradition in Poland.” Speaking at a press conference, the prime minister spoke about the stability of the coalition that PiS can create. Such a government, Morawiecki believes, will be able to lead the country through difficult times, in contrast to the “motley” coalition, “whose only common value is hatred of PiS.”

In parallel with the elections, Polish citizens could participate in a referendum organized by the PiS government. It raised questions about raising the retirement age to 67 years, opening the border with Belarus, selling state assets to foreign companies and accepting migrants from Africa and the Middle East. According to PiS, the referendum was supposed to help the party’s campaign. But the referendum was declared invalid – only 40% of voters took part in it (and a turnout of 50% was required).

National conservatives from PiS have ruled Poland since 2015. During this time, relations between Warsaw and the European Union have deteriorated. Brussels expressed strong dissatisfaction with the judicial reform carried out by PiS, which, according to the EU, undermines the tenure and independence of judges. Brussels was also irritated by PiS’s social policy, in particular, the creation of so-called “LGBT-free zones.”

The situation for PiS is quite difficult, notes Stanislav Kuvaldin, a researcher at the Center for European Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Tusk’s “Civic Coalition” will try to create a coalition with the “Third Way”, which previously categorically denied the possibility of cooperation with PiS, and the “Left”. PiS is unlikely to come to an agreement with them, since its voters will not appreciate the creation of a coalition with abortion supporters and anti-clericals, which the “Left” are, the expert says. A coalition of PiS with the far-right Confederation is possible, but in this case there is a chance that the Polish right will not get enough votes to form a ruling coalition, Kuvaldin adds.

For its part, PiS is trying to assert its advantage as a known and predictable political force that will quickly form a government and prevent disputes and the collapse of coalitions in parliament. However, it is clear that Polish voters are tired of the vision of Poland promoted by PiS. At the same time, the opposition can boast of the unprecedented mobilization of its electorate, which, despite a huge turnout, refused to participate in the referendum, which was important for PiS, the expert summarizes.

The “Civil Coalition” also does not yet have the required number of seats in the Sejm, says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky from IMEMO RAS. “A lot will depend on the Left, but they have already said that they will not negotiate with the Civil Coalition, so the situation seems to be a stalemate,” the expert noted. According to the expert, the record high turnout is due to the high level of political polarization in Poland. Some people vote not for the Coalition, but against PiS and vice versa, the political scientist explained. If it is impossible to form a government within the time frame specified by law, President Duda may well entrust the creation of an interim government to PiS, after which new elections will have to be held, the expert believes.

The likely change of the ruling party from PiS to Tusk’s Civic Platform will not lead to an improvement in relations with Russia, which are in the deepest crisis. The reason for this is Tusk’s complete control over Brussels and, consequently, Washington, the expert notes. If he wins, Poland risks finding itself under the external control of the West, so there is no point in pinning hopes for progress in relations with the victory of the Polish opposition.