July deprived the budget of two-thirds of the surplus – Newspaper Kommersant No. 145 (7346) of 11.08.2022

The federal budget was closed in July with a very impressive one-month deficit of 892 billion rubles, which “ate” most of the surplus accumulated in the first half of the year, follows from the Finance Ministry’s data published yesterday. Revenues based on the results of seven months still exceed expenses, but this difference has decreased over the month from 1.4 trillion to 482 billion rubles, that is, by two-thirds.

However, the movement towards budget deficits is not big news in itself – July surprised only by the increased speed of this process. The head of the department, Anton Siluanov, said earlier that by the end of the year, the deficit could reach up to 2% of GDP. The draft “Guidelines for the Budget, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy for 2023-2025” referred to this year’s deficit of 1.2% of GDP. It is planned to close it primarily due to the savings of the NWF.

Almost the entire amount of the remaining budget “surplus” was accumulated in the first quarter. In the second, against the background of the military operation in Ukraine and new sanctions, revenues were almost equal to expenditures. According to the results of seven months, federal budget revenues amounted to 15.8 trillion rubles. (16% more than a year earlier, in fact – by the amount of inflation), expenses – 15.3 trillion (plus 21% compared to last year).

Separately, in July the situation looks noticeably worse. The Ministry of Finance, following the new policy of closing some information from taxpayers, does not give figures for the past month. But from the difference between seven and six months, it follows that July’s revenues amounted to 1.76 trillion rubles, which is more than a quarter (26%) less than a year earlier. July receipts are noticeably lower than the average monthly income in the first half of this year (2.34 trillion rubles). At the same time, both oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues fell in July – by 23% and 29%, respectively, compared to last July.

July’s budget expenditures, on the contrary, increased compared to last year – which, with falling incomes, determined the monthly deficit of 892 billion. July spending amounted to 2.65 trillion rubles, which is higher than the average monthly indicator of the first half of 2.11 trillion rubles. and last year’s July spending of 2.13 trillion (year-on-year growth of spending – 25%). Against the backdrop of the announced anti-crisis measures (earlier, the authorities estimated this year’s additional expenses at 4 trillion rubles), such growth, however, does not look uncontrollable.

Vadim Visloguzov