JPMorgan analysts allowed the beginning of a recession in the US at the end of this year
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A recession in the US may begin as early as the fourth quarter of this year or in the first quarter of the next. This is stated in the report of JPMorgan Chase analysts, writes MarketWatch.
“In the absence of preventive easing [денежно-кредитной политики] from the Fed (while its expectations include two more increases [процентных ставок] until the end of the year) we forecast a more difficult macroeconomic environment for the stock market in the second half of the year against the backdrop of weakening consumer trends, and quotes will change sharply by then,” the report says (cit. by Interfax).
On the expectation of a recession among investors indicates and Financial Times. According to the newspaper, now the yield of two-year bonds is 4.72%, and ten-year – 3.705%. It is specified that this is the maximum difference between the two types of bonds for at least three months. According to the FT, before every recession in the last 50 years, the yield on short-term instruments was higher.
June 14 Fed kept base rate at the level of 5-5.25% per annum. The regulator noted the growth of economic activity at a “moderate pace”. Unemployment remains low, while inflation is still elevated. Inflation in the United States in June slowed to 4% in annual terms from 4.9% a month earlier, which was the lowest since May 2021.
A looming recession and a potential fall in the stock market in the coming months have been warned earlier by a number of leading Wall Street analysts, including billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham and Morgan Stanley’s chief US equities strategist Mike Wilson. wrote “Vedomosti”. According to analysts at The Wall Street Journal, a recession in the US will come with a 44% chance.
In turn, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in an interview with Bloomberg, said that the likelihood of a recession, on the contrary, decreased against the background of a stable labor market and declining inflation. However, she noted that the risk of recession still remains.
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