JP Morgan has estimated the probability of a recession in the US in the first half of 2023 at 15%

Analysts at the American bank JP Morgan estimated the probability of a recession in the United States in the first half of 2023 at 15%. About it informs “RBC Investments” with a link to the Aton mailing list.

“According to JP Morgan, the risk of a recession in the US in the first half of this year has decreased from 20% to 15%. Now this is the least likely scenario of the four possible, ”the analysts’ forecast quotes the publication.

Soft landing scenarioaccording to which the United States will be able to avoid a recession, is estimated at 25%. IN 26% “sliding” scenario the American economy into recession by the end of 2023. This, according to the bank’s analysts, will lead to a gradual increase in the rate of the US Federal Reserve System.

IN 34% analysts rated option “frog in boiling water”according to which sustained growth and high inflation will push both the Fed and Western European central banks to further raise rates, which will eventually lead to a deeper and global recession.

In the summer of 2022, analysts at Goldman Sachs investment bank evaluated the probability of a recession in the United States in 2023 is 30%. The bank then noted that if a recession did begin, then it “without serious economic imbalances” would most likely be weak.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a forecast according to which the growth rate of the global economy in 2023 will be 2.9%. This is slower than last year, when it added almost 3.5%. The main factors slowing down development are the increase in interest rates by central banks, the fighting in Ukraine and a protracted inflationary crisis. The IMF forecast for US economic growth in 2023 was raised by 0.4 percentage points. – up to 1.4% of GDP.

Read more about this in the material “Kommersant” “IMF is optimistic about the future”.

Alexander Kislov