Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet in the US on the sidelines of the APEC summit

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold their second personal meeting as leaders of these countries on November 15 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco. The last time they spoke was a year ago, on November 14, 2022, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali; the meeting lasted 3 hours and 12 minutes. Xi’s previous visit to the United States took place in 2017, when Donald Trump was president.

The United States expects the leaders’ meeting to produce concrete results, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on November 13: “We believe there are areas where our interests coincide – for example, efforts to combat the illegal trade in fentanyl[thedrugthedeathratefromwhichhasgrownsignificantlyintheUnitedStatesinrecentyears-Vedomosti)Therearealsoareaswherewecanmanagecompetitionmoreeffectively-forexamplebyrestoringmilitarycommunicationschannels”

There is a high probability that the heads of state will come to agreements on at least two of the issues mentioned. Bloomberg reported that an anti-fentanyl deal was being drafted under which China would monitor chemical companies to stem the flow of both the substance and the precursors used to make the drug. In exchange, the United States could lift sanctions against the Chinese Judicial Police Institute, which fell under them for human rights violations.

On November 8, Axios, citing its sources, reported that Biden and Xi intend to announce the resumption of contacts between the military departments of the two countries. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi conveyed the preliminary consent of the Chinese side to this to the Americans at the end of October 2023 during his visit to the United States. The pause in the dialogue between the military representatives of the PRC and the United States has lasted since August 2022, when the resonant flight of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan took place.

At the same time, Politico wrote about Biden’s intention to hold “tough negotiations” with Xi – in particular, about Iran and Russia. It was noted that Washington is especially concerned about the threat of the opening of a “second front” against Israel by the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which is supported by Tehran. Sullivan also noted the day before that, in his opinion, China is interested in de-escalation in the Middle East, which it can contribute to by conveying its concerns to Iran.

According to the Financial Times, the dialogue between Biden and Xi is especially important ahead of 2024, which, according to him, could be “uneven” in relations between the two countries due to the presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States. Biden intends to reaffirm that the United States remains committed to the “one China” policy, but will also express Xi’s concerns about Beijing’s possible interference in the island’s upcoming elections.

On the eve of the summit, the Chinese state agency Xinhua released five articles, very conciliatory in spirit, about returning relations with the United States “to normal.” It says, in particular, that the economies of China and the United States complement each other rather than compete, the two countries bear an important responsibility for the prosperity and development of mankind, and their common interests have only increased recently. Xinhua also reported that San Francisco was the first stop during Xi Jinping’s first visit to the United States in the spring of 1985, when he headed the Party Committee of Zhengding County, Hebei Province.

According to Reuters, after negotiations with Biden, Xi is scheduled to have a dinner with representatives of American business, which will be organized by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) and the National Committee on US-China Relations (NCUSCR).

The Russian delegation at APEC events was headed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. As Russia’s senior representative to APEC, Marat Berdyev, said earlier, Washington did not invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to the forum because of sanctions.

A meeting of APEC finance ministers was already held in San Francisco on November 13, where, according to American Minister Janet Yellen, they came to unity on resolving global challenges. In particular, they talked about ensuring sustainable financing to combat climate change, etc.

Senior State Department representative at APEC Matt Murray noted that the United States wants to reach consensus among all participants to agree on the final statement of the summit. He admitted that it may not be adopted in 2023 due to friction “over wording related primarily to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”

Most likely, the Americans will again raise issues such as the human rights situation in Xinjiang, says Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. But in reality, the most important thing for the United States now is to prevent the situation from escalating around Taiwan, where elections will soon be held, and in the South China Sea, when there are two major hot conflicts in the world in Europe and the Middle East.

The second most important issue for Washington, according to Vasiliev, is the development of trade and economic relations and the increase in American exports to China. “Finally, Biden will probably bring up China’s relations with Iran and Russia for a separate discussion,” the analyst says.

In response to this, the PRC may point to the formation of a trilateral alliance between the USA – South Korea – Japan, as well as AUKUS, and therefore, here, probably, everyone will remain to their own, says Vasiliev. At the same time, the Chinese are closely monitoring the internal political situation in the United States and would not like Republicans to come to power there in 2024, the expert is sure.

Xi and Biden will most likely present some specific agreements to the world, since their meeting has been prepared for a long time by members of the governments of the two countries, says Andrei Karneev, head of the School of Oriental Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The expert expects that the meeting could show “moderate positivity” in their relations – for example, on the restoration of military ties, the fight against drug trafficking, climate and artificial intelligence, but not on Taiwan.

At the same time, the upcoming meeting will document the parties’ desire to continue dialogue, which may help avoid sliding into confrontation, Karneev believes.