It turned out how prices for air tickets will change during the holiday season

The expert revealed the reasons for the increase in the cost of economy class flights

Over the past winter months, the jump in prices for air tickets within Russia was the highest since 2008. According to Rosstat, in February the cost of flights across the country increased by 33.9%, and in February it increased to 42%, which corresponds to 7,244 rubles per 1,000 km of flight. Aviation expert and editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal Roman Gusarov told MK about what caused this increase in flight costs and what passengers are preparing for next.

— Why have prices for air travel within Russia increased so sharply?

— I agree that prices are rising, but I don’t agree with Rosstat on how much. Let’s start with the fact that in recent years a difficult situation has developed in the aviation industry. Since 2019, prices have not increased for almost three years. The first two of them – 2020 and 2021 – were hit by a pandemic, which resulted in a flight ban. Airlines simply physically could not raise prices, while their costs grew, that is, for air carriers this all turned into net losses. Then, in 2022, total sanctions were introduced against the Russian aviation industry and then, in order to support it, the state allocated more than 170 billion rubles as support – an unprecedented amount that allowed airlines to survive and keep prices unchanged. Accordingly, for three years in Russia the cost of air transportation remained at the 2019 level. And everything else in the economy became more expensive. In 2023, the state stopped supporting the airline industry in such large volumes and it is clear that the delayed growth began to be realized during the past year and moved into the beginning of this year.

— But the increase in air ticket prices in February was a record since 2008. This is the story of more than one year or even three…

— Even if we assume that the increase in the cost of passenger air transportation in Russia by 42% is true, then let’s admit that since 2019, almost all goods and services have increased in price by 1.5-2 times. In addition, the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 2022 was around 60 rubles, and now it is already above 90 rubles – an increase of 1.5 times. Our airlines buy spare parts for foreign currency, service at foreign airports, including the purchase of fuel, also occurs for foreign currency, so the cost here has increased by 1.5 times only due to exchange rate differences. Air ticket prices simply physically cannot help but rise in such conditions.

— Do you dispute Rosstat’s assessment of the increase in air ticket prices?

— Yes, because the department draws conclusions from a comparison of supply on the market. However, Rosstat does not study actual sales, and they can vary greatly, because there are low, medium and high fares, because the closer to the departure date, the more expensive the tickets. However, it is not a fact that many tickets were sold at high rates for February and January. The bulk can be sold at medium and low fares, including because people themselves tend to buy tickets in advance, that is, at low fares. Thus, Rosstat describes to us the “average temperature in the hospital.” But the real picture of price growth can only be obtained when airlines report for previous periods and we see the average ticket price. In addition, when we talk about the cost of a flight per 1000 km, we must take into account that it will differ for different types of transportation. On a regional jet it will be higher, on a medium-haul airliner it will be average, and on a long-haul airliner it will be the lowest. The further you fly, the cheaper it is to fly 1000 km.

— What about passenger traffic?

— Over the past year, it increased by 10 million passengers, despite rising prices for air tickets. This is more than 10% more than a year earlier. And in the first months of 2024, the growth in passenger traffic continued. This indicates that the price offer corresponds to the solvency of the population. The “high” season is now beginning, when air ticket prices will rise until October.

— Do you predict further price increases?

— Yes, on the eve of the spring-summer tourist season, prices for air travel may increase significantly. On average, the price increase for the year can be 10-15%. Here I can only advise potential passengers to purchase air tickets early so that their purchase is as profitable as possible for them. Growth will be uneven, but this situation is quite standard. Prices will rise the most on the most popular routes, including Turkey and Dubai. But also for popular flights within Russia – Mineralnye Vody, Sochi, possibly to the Caucasus – the cost of air tickets will increase significantly. But this is not a general rule: there will be areas where prices will change minimally due to low demand.