Iraq asked the Americans to leave – Kommersant FM

Iraq plans to withdraw foreign troops from the country after the US airstrike. This was stated by the country’s Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani. According to him, the decision was made after the death in Baghdad of an influential field commander of the pro-Iranian Shiite movement Hezbollah Al-Nujaba. The Pentagon claimed responsibility for the strike.

According to Reuters, there are now about 2.5 thousand military personnel from the international mission located in Iraq. Political scientist and orientalist Elena Suponina reminds that this is not the first attempt by Baghdad to withdraw foreign troops:

“For the first time, the Iraqi parliament voted for the need to withdraw foreign bases and military from the territory after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

Now, four years later, the Iraqi Prime Minister is again talking about the need to implement the resolution of his own parliament. But four years have passed since then, and things are still there. Therefore, there is no complete confidence that words will turn into deeds.

The Americans, of course, want to leave their small contingent in Iraq compared to what it was. If at the peak of military events there were more than 100 thousand American troops there, now there are only 2.5 thousand and various contractors. American military bases in Iraq are small, but in the event of some kind of military action, for example, against Iran, they can be very useful. Thus, now, after the statements of Muhammad al-Sudani, consultations will begin, the Americans will again put pressure on Iraq, they have leverage for this, including financial ones.

I once talked with the Prime Minister of Iraq. This is a person who knows how to find compromises, but he is not so decisive as to go ahead. It all depends on what the main political parties in Iraq say. And there, of course, there is a lot of pro-Iranian sentiment, especially after the latest death of Iraqi politicians. All this is overwhelming, but on the other side of the scale are American influence and financial assistance.”

Under what conditions can the US authorities agree to withdraw troops? Leading researcher at the MGIMO Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Alexander Krylov, believes that the decision may be influenced by the escalation of the conflict in the Gaza Strip and the upcoming elections in the United States: “Now there is a situation where the Americans will quietly and calmly leave Iraq in the same way as they left in time from Afghanistan. This does not depend as much on the decision of the Iraqi government as it seems.

The withdrawal of the Americans who are present in Iraq is quite an expensive thing. Moreover, the Americans have invested a lot in the training of Shiite formations.

There, just like in Afghanistan, there remain numerous arsenals of weapons that are quite difficult to take back to the United States. It is now very difficult for Americans to disperse their forces (primarily financial and military) in several directions at once. The main destinations for them are, of course, Ukraine and Israel.

I am more than sure that it is simply not profitable for the Americans to keep armed forces in the Middle East, especially in tension. Because objectively, the Shiites will soon begin to attack these military bases very seriously. This entire region is now in a tense state, approaching war. I don’t think America needs an escalation in the Middle East, especially before the elections, so they will most likely withdraw their troops.”

As Reuters notes, anti-American sentiment in Iraq has intensified amid the operation in the Gaza Strip. Pro-Iranian Shiite groups are also demanding the withdrawal of military personnel from the United States and other countries of the international coalition from the country.

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Daria Fomenko