Iran saved face with its strikes on Israel: the consequences could be dire

The former head of British military intelligence, Colonel Philip Ingram, told MailOnline that he does not think drones and missiles launched by Iran will be able to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.

“The obvious way Iran has chosen to attack Israel with these drones and cruise missiles suggests that they are fully counting on Israel’s Iron Dome system to shoot down the cruise missiles and drones that have been launched.” – he said.

Since Saturday evening, Iran has launched more than 200 unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles into Israel, the vast majority of which were intercepted outside the country’s airspace, according to the Israel Defense Forces. A small number of dozens of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles struck Israel, wounding a girl and causing minor damage to a military facility in the south of the country, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagary said early Sunday.

Iran said the attacks were in retaliation for an early April drone strike in Syria that killed 12 Iranians, including two senior generals.

Iran’s mission to the UN warned that the US “should stay out” of the conflict with Israel, but said its attack on Israel meant “the matter can be considered resolved.”

On social media, the Iranian mission said: “Iran’s military action, taken in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter regarding legitimate defense, was a response to the aggression of the Zionist regime against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The issue can be considered resolved. However, if the Israeli regime commits another mistake, Iran’s response will be much harsher. This is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime that the US MUST STAY AWAY from!”

Colonel Ingram said: “If [атака] effective from the Iranian point of view, a series of interrelated actions will be required. The first of them is the launch of unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles from Iranian territory. The second option could be: launching missiles from southern Lebanon with the help of Hezbollah, and/or Yemen, and/or Iran-backed organizations in Iraq and Syria to force the Iron Dome system to engage them and therefore reduce its ability to protecting Israel from Iranian drones and missile attacks. But if this does not happen, then the Iranians will attack Israel solely to save face.

So they know that the Israeli Iron Dome system will most likely destroy all their missiles and drones that will be fired, but they can tell the Iranian people that they have done everything possible to avenge the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) )”.

Colonel Ingram said the “escalation” had already occurred after “Iran carried out a military attack on an Israeli-linked vessel in international waters, seized it and began moving it towards Iranian territorial waters” even before the drone attacks.

Colonel Ingram said the drone and missile strikes were a “massive escalation of what’s going on” and a “coordinated international response” may be needed, which “will likely be more than just sanctions and should lead to some form of increased military activity “.

“This military activity likely suggests to Iran that if any Iranian air force flies over international waters, it may be perceived as hostile and therefore may be shot down,” he said.

In a sign that Tehran may be coordinating attacks against Israel with allies, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have reportedly launched multiple drones that were supposed to reach Israel at the same time, the Daily Mail notes.

British security firm Ambrey said late Saturday: “The Houthis are reported to have launched unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) towards Israel. The drones were launched in coordination with Iran.”

“Israeli ports are being assessed as potential targets,” the statement added, warning of “collateral damage” to shipping.

Colonel Ingram said of the Yemeni Houthi attacks: “This indicates a coordinated effort to overwhelm the Israeli Iron Dome defense system and therefore cripple Israel. It is impossible to say whether these attacks will be devastating or not, but a coordinated attack “such as this will lead to a decisive Israeli response.”

Iran initially said it had launched 100 drones and missiles – although that number has since risen to more than 200 – at Israel, which Colonel Ingram said “wouldn’t get past the Iron Dome.” Drones are slow, their trajectory is predictable, and they can be tracked all the way. The only problem is that you get multiple attacks at the same time from different places. This can lead to overload as they only have a certain amount of power. If Iran exceeds the capabilities of the Iron Dome, the citizens of Israel will be at risk.”

He said if serious attacks penetrated the Iron Dome and had a major impact on Israel, it could have wider global consequences.

“If there is a larger attack on Israel, two things will happen. First, Israel will evaluate how it is going to respond, and its response may or may not now include negotiations with the broader international community.

But Israel has more than enough capacity to respond aggressively to Iran without needing international support to do so, even as it wages war against Hezbollah and Hamas and in the security of the West Bank. However, if it comes to that, a stronger international response will be required.

This will be a very measured step because the international community does not want to turn any response into something that encourages regional conflict, because this regional conflict will lead to two things: it will undermine the economic stability of the world. And, secondly, it will play into the hands of Vladimir Putin, allowing him to expand his activities in Ukraine. So we are in a very difficult situation diplomatically and politically, and our leaders are well aware of this.”