Investments on trust – Newspaper Kommersant No. 166 (7367) of 09/09/2022

One of the central topics of the Moscow Financial Forum, a traditional autumn event of the Ministry of Finance, was the transformation of the financial sector to ensure structural changes in the economy. As the discussion showed, for the time being, investment activity, which the authorities place special emphasis on in anti-crisis policy, needs to restore confidence in investments in the Russian economy, increase long-term financing from banks, and also intensify the participation of business and citizens in equity capital.

The issue of “financial sovereignty”, which is acute in the face of sanctions, was brought up as the “headline” topic of the Moscow Financial Forum in the Manege. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who attended the event of the Ministry of Finance, speaking at the plenary session, noted that Russia is “in the process of rethinking its financial sovereignty”, the architecture of which has yet to be formed in such a way as to solve “all the necessary tasks, excluding the influence of third countries.” Among the priorities outlined by the prime minister in this activity are the development of digital infrastructure, as well as the transition to a wider use of “friendly” national currencies.

As the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, noted, the financial sector needs to “learn how to finance economic development and structural adjustment.” At the same time, she added, such a restructuring should not “slide” into a simple replacement of the geography of exports – it is necessary to increase labor productivity and the share of technological products, which requires investments. It should be noted that during the revision of the plan of priority measures to stabilize the economy, the need for additional stimulation of investments as one of the priority areas was already discussed (see “Kommersant” dated August 29) — in the context of curtailing preferential lending programs (see “Kommersant” dated September 3), obviously, the authorities expect the financial sector to increase private financing of projects.

So, according to Elvira Nabiullina, banks should be given more long-term loans – for this, the Central Bank is ready to “change the regulation.”

The capital market should also play a “completely different role” – the share capital of the Russian Federation is “extremely” lacking. According to the head of the Central Bank, now, on average, about 33% of the shares of companies are in free float (on the exchanges of other countries – 50-80%), but if each company increases this share to at least 35%, then this will attract about 3 trillion rubles. , and if up to 50% – up to 6 trillion rubles. However, she added, in order for citizens and businesses to invest in securities, it is necessary to return to disclosure. Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev announced this opportunity at the end of the year after balancing the interests of investors and the needs of issuers in protection from sanctions.

However, as follows from the words of the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin, the problem is systemic: the volume of savings in the economy is higher than the volume of investment by 1.4-1.5% of GDP – in general, the share of investment in Russia’s GDP is about 21-23%, while, for example, in China it reaches 40%. It is possible to increase investments, according to Mr. Kudrin, by temporarily increasing budget investments, which will be followed by private ones, but this proposal is treated with caution in the financial and economic bloc of the government. At one of the discussions within the framework of the forum, Deputy Minister of Economy Polina Kryuchkova separately noted that “the emphasis should be on private investment activity – the state should support, but not replace” it with budget investments.

Alexei Kudrin also talked about building confidence in investments in the Russian economy, prompting a strong response from Elvira Nabiullina: in her words, “no amount of budgetary investment can compensate for its lack.”

Trust, the head of the Central Bank recalled, was undermined by the consequences of sanctions, the freezing of assets and the closure of financial information, which, in turn, affected the predictability of the dividend policy. As a measure to help restore it, Elvira Nabiullina called compensation for losses to investors whose assets were frozen – one of the options is the creation of a special fund based on the Deposit Insurance Agency, which could be replenished from income from assets frozen by the Russian Federation non-residents. The Ministry of Finance, however, is still extremely cautious about this idea.

Evgenia Kryuchkova