inflation by the end of 2023 will be 6–7% – Kommersant

In the coming months, annual inflation in Russia will continue to rise due to increasing price pressure. This is due to the fact that pro-inflationary risks have materialized in the Russian Federation – domestic demand has grown, outstripping supply capacity, and the ruble has weakened, as follows from the information and analytical commentary (.pdf) Bank of Russia.

“Under these conditions, to limit the scale of inflation’s upward deviation from the target and return it to 4% in 2024, an increase in the key rate was required. According to the forecast, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 6–7% in 2023, return to 4% in 2024 and will be close to 4% in the future,” the Central Bank said in a commentary.

According to the Bank of Russia, consumer prices in August increased by 0.28% (in July the price increase was 0.63%). Adjusted for seasonal factors, price growth in August was 0.75%. The average monthly price increase over the summer was 0.72%, which corresponds to annual inflation of 9%, the Central Bank reported.

September 15 Central Bank raised key rate by 100 basis points, to 13%. This step alone, as the regulator itself notes, may not be enough to curb inflation, and therefore the rate increase may continue. Analysts allow its growth to 13.5–14%. The duration of maintaining tight monetary policy will depend on the speed with which the regulator manages to combat inflation.

More details in the material “Bet on growth”.

Erdni Kagaltynov