Indian PM visits Washington to strengthen military cooperation

During the visit, which began on June 20, Modi will meet with US President Joe Biden and other officials, as well as address Congress. The key issue of the talks will be the strengthening of military-technical cooperation (MTC) and the transfer of American technology to Delhi. Washington sees India as a key adversary to China and a likely ally against it.

Modi’s visit to Washington was preceded by the June 5 completion by India and the United States of a roadmap for defense cooperation, details of which were not released. It was developed following a meeting between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Indian counterpart Rajnata Singh in Delhi. The document is expected to be approved in Washington. During the visit, Modi could also strike deals to assemble American engines to power India’s Tejas fighter jets. In addition, Delhi may purchase US Predator strike drones to monitor the disputed border with China in the Himalayas. In July 2022, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved an amendment to the CAATSA law (“Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act”), which exempts the American military-technical cooperation with India from restrictions, despite Delhi’s contract to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems in 2018.

As the Indian prime minister noted on June 19, support for the visit by US officials and opinion leaders “highlights the depth of India-US relations.” A day later, on June 20, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal before a meeting with Biden, the Indian prime minister noted that “ties between New Delhi and Washington have become stronger and deeper than ever.” Modi emphasized in the interview that Delhi “deserves a much higher, deeper and wider profile and role” and will also demonstrate during the visit that it is one of the leaders of the “global South”.

On June 14, Reuters, citing sources, reported that the United States intends to push through the purchase by India of reconnaissance drones for monitoring the sea surface MQ-9B Sea Guardian (now Delhi is renting them). During the negotiations, the proposed batch was reduced from 30 to 18 units worth $3 billion. The Indian side may also agree in Washington on the joint production of ammunition with the Americans and the supply of armored personnel carriers of an unnamed model, the agency reports.

As Alexander Ermakov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS, explained to Vedomosti, the Sea Guardian is an attempt to create a maritime patrol vehicle for the near sea zone based on the existing Reaper strike UAV. “It is difficult to evaluate its effectiveness, there is not much operating experience, but the idea of ​​​​providing low-cost active surveillance in strategic areas is reasonable. The purchase of them by India is a consequence of its phobias regarding the Chinese fleet, perhaps exaggerated,” says Ermakov.

At the end of 2022, India remains the world’s largest arms importer. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia remains its main supplier. The volume of arms supplies from Russia to India in 2018–2022 compared to 2013–2017 decreased by 37%. The share of Russia, according to SIPRI experts, in the Indian market has decreased over five years from 64 to 45%. On February 13, 2023, Dmitry Shugaev, director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), announced that Russia’s arms exports to India over the previous five years amounted to $13 billion, and at the beginning of the year the order portfolio was more than $10 billion. According to Yermakov, such The dynamics of Russian arms exports to India is explained by the classification by Moscow and Delhi of contracts in this area and the reduction in the use of the dollar after payment problems due to the sanctions imposed in 2022. In addition, India’s military-technical cooperation with the United States does not pose a direct threat to Russian positions, since the Americans offer weapons that, as a rule, are not produced in Russia. According to Aleksey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indian Ocean Region at IMEMO RAS, the trend towards increasing US arms supplies to India is obvious. “How long it will last depends on the dynamics of US-China relations and the internal dynamics of the transformation of Indian elites. India is needed for the United States to “outsource” China in the Indo-Pacific region, this is how Washington sees the situation. But the Indians see it differently and are not going to turn into American proxies,” the expert concludes.