India may buy $13 billion worth of naval weapons from France to counter China

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the French capital on July 13-14. The main purpose of Modi’s visit to Paris is an agreement on the purchase of 26 Rafale-M multipurpose carrier-based fighters manufactured by Dassault for the Indian aircraft carriers Vikramaditya (former Russian Admiral Gorshkov) and Vikrant, as well as three non-nuclear submarines (NNS) of the Scorpene type from Naval Group Corporation . The total value of these contracts can reach $ 13.3 billion, on July 10, the Defense Procurement Board of India already agreed to the deals after approval by the Indian Ministry of Defense.

Modi’s visit to France was preceded by a trip to the US at the end of June. In the field of arms imports, he reached an agreement to purchase 18 MQ-9B Sea Guardian UAVs for $ 3 billion to patrol the sea, reconnaissance and strike UAVs MQ-9B Predator to monitor the area of ​​​​disputed border sections with China in the Himalayas and American F-414 engines for light Indian Tejas fighter.

The Rafale-M fighters are a carrier-based version of the 36 Rafale already purchased by the Indian Air Force. The Rafale-M is seen as a replacement for the Russian carrier-based MiG-29K/KUB fighters (two squadrons in naval aviation and 12 in the Vikramaditya air wing, according to Military Balance for 2022). The competitor of the French car was the American F / A-18E Super Hornet manufactured by Boeing Corporation. The Ministry of Defense of India in 2022 concluded that the Rafale-M is a more suitable option. The Indian Navy also already has Scorpene NNSs in the amount of four units (in service – one, according to the Military Balance).

At the end of 2022, India remains the world’s largest arms importer. At the same time, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia remains its main supplier (45%), although the volume of supplies in 2018-2022 compared to 2013–2017 decreased by 37%. In February 2023, Dmitry Shugaev, director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said that Russia’s arms exports to India amounted to $13 billion over five years, and at the beginning of the year, the order book was more than $10 billion.

India is increasing the diversification of arms supplies so that in the event of a crisis it will not become dependent on any supplier in the face of confrontation with its neighbors, explains Gleb Makarevich, researcher at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the IMEMO RAS. The emphasis on submarines and carrier-based aircraft reflects Delhi’s fears of a possible collision with Beijing in the Indian Ocean, continues Makarevich. But Russia does not yet have fundamental risks of losing a significant part of the current Indian market, the expert emphasizes.

The Indians are not satisfied with the technical level of the power plants of Russian nuclear submarines, military expert Ilya Kramnik believes. They are less and less satisfied with the carrier-based MiG-29K / KUB (45 such machines were delivered in India in the late 2000s – early 2010s). “In the foreseeable future, the MiG-29K / KUB will be removed from service, since they do not have an active phased array radar,” the expert believes. Now the Indians, says Kramnik, need a more modern carrier-based fighter, and here the Rafale-M has the advantage of unification with the Rafale already in the Air Force. Putting an American vehicle into service would require excessive maintenance infrastructure costs, Kramnik explains.

“Russia’s share in the Indian market is still dominant, and will remain so even in the event of a decline. It will be possible to talk about concrete prospects only after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. But it is clear that Paris, not Washington, will be Russia’s key competitor in the aviation and submarine segments in India,” Kramnik believes.

India’s decision to buy submarines from France could cross out Germany’s plans to sell its own, adds Mikhail Barabanov, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. In early June, Bloomberg, citing sources, wrote that the Indian Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and the German Thyssenkrupp would take part in the tender for the $5.2 billion nuclear submarine project. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed that the submarine deal was on the agenda of his visit to Mumbai 7– June 8.