Incomes keep on the outskirts of poverty

The forecasts of a noticeable increase in the level of poverty in Russia due to the imposition of sanctions did not come true, but the risks of a decrease in the well-being of the population still remain. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the review of the socio-economic situation of Russians issued by the experts of the CMASF.

After an increase in the income of the population in 2021 by 3.9%, at the end of 2022, they decreased by 1.5%. But already in the first half of this year (January-May), all indicators of real income (that is, adjusted for inflation) showed a positive trend: real income grew by 3.9% year-on-year, real disposable income – by 4.7%, real wages – by 6%.

As for the poverty rate, at the end of 2022 it updated its historical low, dropping below 10% (9.8%, or 14.3 million people). At the same time, not only the indicator determined according to the methodology of Rosstat was reduced, but also the so-called sociological poverty level (defined as the proportion of the population that does not have enough for food or is enough only for them, but not for clothes and shoes) – from 40% to 30% of the population. Nevertheless, this indicator remains very high and characterizes a significant level of “pre-poverty”.

Note that the risks of falling into a situation of “pre-poverty” are different depending on the industry in which the employee is employed. The situation is especially difficult in the hotel and restaurant business, in administrative activities, education, agriculture, in real estate operations – in these sectors of the economy, the average salary does not exceed three minimum wages (and in the hotel and restaurant business it is even less than this threshold). This level of wages puts households with a large number of dependents in a difficult position. Only in four sectors the average wage is five or more times higher than the minimum wage (finance, mining, information and communications, as well as “professional, scientific, technical activities”). In addition, the poorest 10% of the population remains a vulnerable category in terms of credit burden. If the median ratio of the volume of payments on loans and borrowings (for those who have it is non-zero) to income is 17.5% for the whole sample, then for the poorest group it is 23%.

Anastasia Manuylova