In the West, there was a plan for drug blockade of Russia

The pseudo-predictions did not come true. After the spring recession in July, the recovery process began. As a result, GDP fell only by 2.1%. Growth is expected to continue this year. The figures, however, are modest, but inspire restrained optimism.

Economic growth in Russia this year does not rule out even the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to his latest forecast, GDP will grow by 0.7% (in the previous – +0.3%).

At the same time, the IMF states the survivability of our GDP: “The Russian economy turned out to be more resistant to sanctions than many experts initially expected. After a sharp fall in the second quarter of last year, the economy recovered strongly in the third and fourth quarters, reducing the decline in production for 2022 to 2.1 percent.”

The explanation, however, is traditional. “Unexpectedly strong results” at the end of last year, the fund connects “with the stability of oil exports.” But at the same time, the fund warns that this year due to falling oil prices, as well as the oil and oil embargo and price ceilings, budget revenues will fall significantly. Which, of course, will add to our problems.

But, as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has repeatedly emphasized, domestic oil companies have basically completed the reorientation of hydrocarbon exports from the west to the east and south. Therefore, sanctions, including new ones, in the oil and gas sector will no longer bring the expected economic and geopolitical dividends to the collective West.

Washington is fully aware of this. And they propose to shift the weight of the sanctions press, which, it seems, has already cracked due to an overabundance of restrictions (according to various estimates, up to 15,000 have accumulated), from Russian exports to imports.

The fact is that, despite the comprehensive restrictions on the supply of goods, technologies, spare parts and components to almost all Russian enterprises and the disconnection of leading banks from the SWIFT interbank payment system, Western exports to Russia fell far from the volumes expected in Washington and Brussels .

According to Bloomberg calculations, last year exports from the G7 countries and the EU to Russia only halved and stopped at $66 billion.

Reasons: not all commodity flows are prohibited yet, for example, in the field of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. In addition, Russia has established so-called parallel imports through a number of countries.

According to the FCS, its value in 2022 exceeded $20 billion. Brussels noted that the export of European high-tech sub-sanctioned goods, for example, to Uzbekistan, increased by 126% last year. And in Kyrgyzstan – in general three times.

Detour maneuvers in the West decided to liquidate. Now the European Commission is preparing the 11th sanctions package, focused on monitoring the implementation of restrictions and the introduction of secondary sanctions against those countries and companies that have established supplies of goods and services banned by the EU and the G7 to Russia.

As part of the preparation of this package, David O’Sullivan, the European Union’s special envoy for sanctions, was sent to the Russian underbelly – Central Asia.

He has already held talks with President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, after which, according to Gazeta.uz, he said: “We respect Uzbekistan’s desire to remain neutral, and nevertheless, with great enthusiasm and gratitude, we accepted the assurances that Uzbekistan against its territory being used to circumvent the imposed sanctions.” According to him, the European Commission handed over to Uzbekistan a list of goods that are subject to EU sanctions, which includes block diagrams and microchips. In case of disobedience, restrictive measures will be applied against Uzbek companies.

In turn, back in July 2022, the US Treasury included Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan in the list of states that can supply sanctioned goods to Russia. At the same time, the American ambassador in Tashkent, Daniel Rosenblum, argued that the government of Uzbekistan “reaffirmed very clearly” that they want to comply with the sanctions.

The assumption that our neighbors will actually support the West in the sanctions war against Russia, and in the near future against China, is, of course, highly doubtful. For them, political and economic contacts with us and the Celestial Empire are more important than pro-Western ones. But you have to turn around. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly confirmed that the Kremlin receives messages from a number of countries about sanctions threats. But “we continue to maintain close contacts with our partners in order to minimize the risks.”

In general, it is most likely impossible to block completely parallel imports. Even if a number of countries succumb to the West, there will be new detours.

In order to bottle them up, the White House, according to Bloomberg, proposed to the G7 partners at the upcoming May 18-21 summit in Japan to discuss and adopt a new sanctions mechanism.

The list of products prohibited for shipment to Russia is planned to be replaced by a list of permitted products, respectively, making it extremely short and constantly being revised towards further reduction.

Bloomberg warns: “The US is considering moving closer to a complete ban on most exports to Russia, which could lead to significant economic pressure on Russian leadership.”

A situation may arise when the import of medicines, medical equipment, food and agricultural products into Russia will be prohibited.

True, the next anti-Russian consensus is still far away. Washington fears dissension among EU members, sharp dissatisfaction with international and national pharmaceutical companies, as well as the strengthening of allied relations between Russia and China.

But the fact remains. In Washington, they seriously set their sights on a drug blockade of Russia. In other words, the Joe Biden administration, contrary to the recent assurances of the new ambassador to Moscow, Lynn Tracy, that the Americans do not consider the Russians as enemies, is ready for mass civilian casualties due to a shortage, for example, of high-tech drugs.

Recall that the administration of Bill Clinton initiated in 1992 the introduction by the UN Security Council of a complete trade embargo against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The then Kremlin, by the way, did not mind. The results were cannibalistic – a sharp increase in morbidity and death among the innocent population. UN officials were shocked. In 2000, the Secretary General of the organization, Kofi Annan, achieved an exception from the UN policy of such sanctions.

Examples of this kind of brutal aggression are hard to find in world history. However, in ancient times there was something similar. In 433 BC. the popular assembly of Athens adopted the so-called Megarian psephism – a naval blockade of the policy of Megara for the transition from the Delian Union led by Athens to the Peloponnesian led by Sparta. Almost all the inhabitants of Megara starved to death. In response, a significant part of the remaining members of the Delian League defected to Sparta. Athens lost.

Of course, a drug embargo is unlikely to be lethal to Russia. Last year, domestic pharmaceuticals showed an increase of 22%. In May, the implementation of the government’s concept of technological sovereignty will begin. By 2030, “the coefficient of technological independence will be increased by 2.5 times.” The first results, including in the production of medicines, will be obtained this year. Pharmaceutical intelligence has not been canceled either.