In the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomy of Gagauzia, two pro-Russian candidates entered the second round at once

In the Moldavian autonomy of Gagauzia populated by Turkic-speaking Orthodox Gagauz, on May 1, the preliminary results of the election of the head (bashkan), held on April 30, were announced. The vote did not reveal a clear winner, the candidate supported by the largest opposition Party of Socialists (PSRM), Grigoriy Uzun, and protege of the Shor party, Eugenia Hutsul, advanced to the second round. Both received just over 26% of the vote with a turnout of 57.8%.

Both organizations, from which candidates for the Bashkans of Gagauzia come, are considered pro-Russian, but the campaign is taking place against the backdrop of pressure from the Moldovan authorities on Shor. On May 1, at the international airport in Chisinau, the deputy leader of the party, a member of the Moldovan Parliament, Marina Tauber, was detained. The politician is on trial for illegal financing of the party. The prosecutor’s office decided to detain her, fearing that the deputy, like her party leader, oligarch Ilan Shor in 2019, would hide from law enforcement officers, on April 13 he was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison.

The agenda of all candidates for the head of Gagauzia was similar: the Ukrainian crisis, the high cost of housing and communal services and the normalization of relations with Russia, said the head of the Chisinau Center for Analysis, Research and Forecasting Balkan-Centre Serhiy Manastyrly. At the same time, the pro-European ruling party Action and Solidarity (PAS) did not even nominate a candidate in the region. “Instead, Chisinau chose to support ex-bashkan Dmitry Kroitor (he held office from 1999 to 2002). Formally, he is a pro-European liberal and the most convenient politician for the Moldovan authorities, but he also spoke about the importance of friendship with Moscow,” the expert noted.

According to Manastyrly, the support of the current Bashkan Irina Vlakha and her administrative resources did not help the experienced politician. “The alleged connection of Kroitor with Chisinau scared the voters – the Gagauz are dissatisfied with the policy of the Moldovan authorities because of their relations with Russia,” the political scientist added. Uzun was previously a member of the Gagauz People’s Assembly and a member of the Moldovan parliament from the PSRM. He spent most of his life in Russia, where he graduated from high school and university, and only after that he went into business and politics.

If Uzun wins, most likely, he will be able to pursue an independent and Russia-friendly policy in the interests of Moldovan citizens who do not want integration with Romania, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a researcher at IMEMO RAS, said. “Integration seeks [президент Майя] Sandu, but it is the Gagauz autonomy that stands in her way,” the political scientist added. Hutsul is unlikely to be a completely independent figure, Officers-Belsky believes. “The influence of Shor in Moldovan politics is great, but the party as a whole is engaged in toothless opposition activities, which sometimes include pro-Russian slogans,” the expert believes.

Manastirli, in turn, notes that if any of the current candidates wins, it will not be easier for Chisinau, since the region will retain its pro-Russian orientation, and according to the law, the Gagauz Bashkan is entitled to a seat in the Moldovan government. “For Moscow, in principle, it doesn’t matter who wins in the second round, for it the outcome of the elections will be positive in any case,” political scientist Vladimir Bruter believes.

But in Moldova, the results of the elections are approved by the court, adds Manastirli: “But the court is controlled by the central authorities. I would not rule out the option of calling re-elections.”