In the base scenario of the Central Bank, the economy will return to growth, inflation will reach the target in 2024
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November 2 Central Bank published “The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023 and the period of 2024 and 2025”, taking into account the latest decision on the key rate. In the document, he explains his approaches to the implementation of monetary policy in the changed economic conditions and presents the basic and alternative scenarios for the development of the economy for the next three years.
As follows from the baseline forecast of the Central Bank, the Russian economy will contract during 2022 and most of 2023, after which it will move to growth. By 2025, the GDP growth rate will stabilize in the range of 1.5–2.5%. Annual inflation will return to the target of 4% by 2024.
In the accelerated adaptation alternative scenario, due to faster economic restructuring, GDP growth and lower inflation are possible as early as 2023. In the “Global Crisis” scenario, which assumes increased geopolitical tensions and the global financial crisis, the recovery of the Russian economy is postponed until 2025.
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