In March 2024, consumer spending was at its highest in six years.
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According to Sberindex (population spending using Sber cards), in March consumer spending was at its highest in the last six years. In real terms, they exceeded last year’s level by 8.8%. Spending on non-food products increased the most over the annual period in March (by 14.3%), the weakest on services and catering (2.8% and 2.9%). Compared to December 2018, in March 2024, the volume of purchases of non-food goods in real terms increased by 15.9%, the volume of spending on services and catering – by 14% and 28.9%, respectively (see chart).
Compared to February of this year, the real increase in consumer spending in March, taking into account seasonality, according to Sberindex, was 0.7% (0.5% a month earlier). This is 85% explained by an increase in spending on “non-food” (plus 1.8% per month), while spending on food decreased (by 0.5%). Estimates by Sber analysts indicate that the average monthly growth rate of consumption, taking into account seasonality, in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 0.1% and 1.2% in the first quarter of 2024. The Ministry of Economy believes that in February, taking into account seasonality, the increase in population consumption was at the level of 0.4%, and for October and November 2023 – 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively (for December 2023 and January 2024 of the corresponding The ministry does not publish estimates).
In terms of trends, this is strikingly different from the Sberindex data. The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting believes that, having reached a peak in the fourth quarter of 2023 (to the monthly average of 2018, taking into account seasonality), consumer spending in January and February 2024 reduced the growth rate (from 9.7% in October 2023 to 9.3% in February 2024).
According to Sberindex, in the first week of April, consumer spending growth accelerated to 2.5% from 0.9% the week before. Over the year, weekly real consumption increased by 2.1% (this is minus 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous week). According to Romir, in the first week of April the average bill for the purchase of everyday goods was 23.8% higher than a year ago, and 21.7% higher than the week before. “After intense holiday spending in February and early March, Russians are likely returning to their usual consumption style,” the study authors note.
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