In December to November 2023, the corporate loan portfolio grew by 1.3 trillion rubles

According to the report of the Bank of Russia on the development of the banking sector, in December to November 2023, the corporate loan portfolio grew by 1.3 trillion rubles. (by 20.1% in annual terms, see chart). “The growth of the banking system’s requirements for organizations by the end of 2023, most likely (the volume of investments in debt and equity securities and other forms of participation in the capital of organizations is still available only as of December 1), exceeded the October forecast of the Central Bank of 16–19% in annual terms “,” analysts of the Telegram channel “Hard Figures” note. The Central Bank explains the rapid growth of corporate lending, especially at the end of 2023, by financing transactions for the exit of non-residents from Russian assets (0.5 trillion rubles), replacing external debt (2.5 trillion rubles), project financing of housing construction (plus 1 .4 trillion rubles) and financing of new investment projects. In addition, in December, companies needed borrowed funds, since not all budget funds were transferred to the executors of government contracts, remaining in accounts in the federal treasury.

The Bank of Russia predicts that the growth rate of corporate lending in 2024 will slow down to 5–10%. However, analysts of the Telegram channel “Hard Figures” note based on the results of 2023 that “the monetary policy had little effect on a large share of corporate lending.” According to the regulator’s estimates, the exit of non-residents from Russian business continued in 2023, but the volume of transactions was small. The head of the department of banking regulation and analytics of the Central Bank, Alexander Danilov, yesterday found it difficult to estimate the volume of bank loans to finance “exits” in 2024. “This is always a very situational story and difficult to predict, we gave a general forecast for the pace of lending, within this range this will be one of the factors,” he explained.

Meanwhile, according to the Central Bank itself, in December the availability of credit for companies deteriorated significantly. The response to the tightening of the monetary policy and the rise in credit costs at the end of 2023 was the rapid growth in the issuance of corporate bonds. In December 2023, their market volume grew by 1.56 trillion rubles. (7%) and reached 23.9 trillion rubles, and for the entire 2023 the growth amounted to 5 trillion rubles. (26.5%) – maximum for ten years. The average bond rate in December 2023 was 13.85%, 2-3 percentage points cheaper than bank loans.

Artem Chugunov