Imports show propensity to recover

In September, according to the “mirror” foreign trade statistics of the countries – the main trading partners of the Russian Federation (45 states, more than 80% of foreign trade until February 2022), collected by analysts of the Telegram channel “Solid Figures”, Russian exports grew by 12% in annual terms after rising 15% in August, imports fell 12% after a 9% decline.

Among the leaders of imports from the Russian Federation in September were India (an increase of five times year on year) and Turkey (2.5 times). Exports to Greece and Hungary increased three and two and a half times in terms of oil supplies. The total share of China, India and Turkey in September in deliveries from the Russian Federation increased to 54% from 30% in January. In the structure of exports, the share of energy raw materials in the third quarter exceeded 60%, while a year ago it was less than half.

Imports to the Russian Federation grew fastest in September from Turkey (its volume was 2.3 times more than a year ago), Kazakhstan (by 41% more) and China (by 21%). The share of China in Russian imports reached 43% against 30% at the beginning of the year. At the same time, imports of investment goods decreased by 24% against a fall of 26% in August.

Analysts note that based on the assessment of the balance of payments published by the Central Bank (see “Kommersant” dated November 11), exports could be weaker, and the recovery of imports is more active than “proxy measurements” show — detailed statistics are not available for all trading partners . “The accuracy of the proxy decreases with the reorientation of trade to countries whose statistics we do not see (for example, Iran and Saudi Arabia): there is not enough FCS data – even without details,” they note. According to the Federal Customs Service, in nine months, the annual decline in imports slowed to 15-16% against 30% at the peak of the decline in April 2022. The reason for the restoration is parallel import. FCS Deputy Head Ruslan Davydov said that at the end of October such imports amounted to $12.6 billion (1.6 million tons), and by the end of the year it could exceed $15 billion (2 million tons).

The reversal of import dynamics in September was noted by analysts of the MMI Telegram channel. Budget statistics show that the recovery of imports continued: import revenues in October decreased by 20.9% against 28.5% in annual terms in September. “The recovery of imports is largely due to the supply of consumer goods. The supply of goods for investment purposes is still extremely difficult,” analysts say.

Artem Chugunov