Imports of sunflower seeds to Russia suspended: how does this threaten the market

Shortly before the start of the sowing campaign, Russian farmers learned that some Western suppliers of sunflower seeds may not give us anything. They announced this in a letter to Russian clients: that they are suspending the acceptance of applications for the purchase of sunflower hybrids and that they are reviewing prices. The consequences for the Russian market can be extremely unpleasant.

The formal reason for such a demarche was the ban of the Rosselkhoznadzor from February 1 on the supply of sunflower seeds to one of the large foreign firms from an “unfriendly” country. At the same time, the supervisory authority reported that there was no discrimination in its decision. Rosselkhoznadzor inspectors are constantly monitoring the situation on phytosanitary security of supplies and have identified a dangerous disease in the seeds of the importing company, which can lead to the loss of 80% of the crop.

Apparently, Western manufacturers did not believe the official version and saw some political undertones in the actions of the Russian authorities. As a sign of solidarity, three more seed companies – also from “unfriendly” countries – voluntarily suspended their contracts with Russian farmers.

However, it must be said that in August last year, the Ministry of Agriculture called almost everywhere, here and now, to refuse to import seeds, to switch to domestic ones. Although for some crops, dependence on foreign supplies ranges from 50 to 80%. In particular, for the same sunflower – 77%.

Here it is appropriate to recall that at the end of the 90s of the last century, with the help of the Ministry of Agriculture, large Western companies were admitted to Russia – suppliers of seeds – which captured almost the entire domestic market. At that time, it was profitable, as we were able to quickly increase sunflower yields and begin to develop our oil and fat industry.

What is the prospect in the future, if imports will do us a “handle”?

According to agrarian officials, some Western seed producers have been frightening their intention to leave the Russian market for a long time. But they were waiting for a good excuse to “slam the door.” And they waited: the ban on the import of seeds by one foreign company prompted three more to suspend the execution of previously concluded contracts and revise prices.

One way or another, domestic experts express confidence that if Western partners renounce their obligations, this will not affect the plans for the upcoming sowing campaign. They back up their words with numbers. The total market volume of sunflower seed hybrids is 38-40 thousand tons. About 20 thousand tons were produced (localized) inside the country, another 10 thousand were left from old stocks. In addition, in the spring-22, 20% more seeds were imported to Russia, while the area under sunflower increased only by 3%. Seeds will be enough with a margin – at least for this year!

Most likely, we really will not be left without planting material. After all, according to some forecasts, a decrease in sunflower acreage is also expected. Producers are dissatisfied with the prices for seeds, they amounted to 18-20 thousand rubles per ton, although expectations were one and a half times higher.

The area will also be reduced due to the fact that there is simply no place for sunflower …!

“Due to bad weather in the fall, we were unable to harvest a significant part of the sunflower, it went under the snow,” Igor Abakumov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, host of the Rural Hour program, told MK. crop rotation they will not enter.

If we add these two circumstances (the unfavorable price of cultivation and the reduction in production areas), can they lead to the fact that this autumn we will not receive an additional sunflower crop? And already in 2024, respectively, will prices for sunflower oil jump in stores?

The situation is well known to us in 2021, when Vladimir Putin personally brought down oil prices in manual mode.

– I do not think that sunflower oil will become much more expensive – unless there is a cartel agreement, – Abakumov answers, – But the antimonopoly service should monitor this.

In general, the sowing campaign has not yet begun, and we are already confident that the situation is under full control. As it usually happens, domestic officials turn the problems that have arisen not into a minus, but into a plus for the Russian manufacturer Say, our breeders finally have a long-awaited chance to prove themselves and show what our advanced science is capable of.

And if there were no sanctions, then they had to be invented, since they give impetus to the import substitution program. It’s hard to disagree with this. However, we have one or two worthy varieties and hybrids. And even real commodity lots directly to the sowing season – and even more so …