Imports continue to shrink trade surplus

From a preliminary estimate of the Bank of Russia, it follows that the current account surplus in the balance of payments in January-October 2022 amounted to $215 billion (2.3 times more than a year ago), and the surplus in trade in goods and services was $257 billion (twice as much, respectively). The Central Bank explains that the main role in such dynamics of the current account was played by the growth of the surplus in the balance of goods and services due to an increase in the cost of exports and a decrease in the cost of imports. At the same time, the deficit of primary and secondary income grew, including due to a decrease in received investment income and current transfers. The surplus in the financial account of the balance of payments was the result of an increase in foreign financial assets and an almost commensurate decrease in liabilities to non-residents.

Meanwhile, as Kommersant has repeatedly written, since May, imports have been steadily recovering, while exports have been declining. In October, according to the regulator’s estimates, the trade surplus amounted to $19.3 billion, reaching its lowest level since October 2021. The surplus of the trading account in October increased to $17.7 billion against $17.1 billion monthly average in the third quarter due to a decrease in the deficit of investment and other income to $1.6 billion in October against $7.8 billion and $5.2 billion in September and August, respectively (see chart).

“Mirror trading statistics show that now the dynamics of exports and imports is stabilizing, we will soon tell you about the data for September,” the authors of the Solid Numbers Telegram channel write. “In absolute terms, the values ​​of both the trade balance and the current account remain very high, which supports the ruble exchange rate at current levels (60.95 rubles / $ at the moment).” As the trade surplus shrinks further, the ruble will gradually weaken – for stronger dynamics, the trade surplus should collapse several times, which MMI Telegram channel analysts consider unlikely.

Economists note that by the end of the year, the impact of EU and G7 export restrictions on Russian goods will manifest itself. In the coming months, the key factor for Russia’s foreign trade, as well as for the ruble, will be the effectiveness of the EU embargo on the export of oil (from December 5) and petroleum products (from February 5).

Artem Chugunov