Imports are catching up with exports

The data of the countries that are Russia’s main trading partners for August (before February, this was more than 80% of the country’s foreign trade), according to analysts from the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, indicate that the dynamics of exports remained almost unchanged compared to July (growth by 15 % year on year), while the main directions of export of goods remained the same. These are India (seven-fold growth in trade with Russia in annual terms), Malaysia (triple growth) and Turkey (doubling). Imports to Russia continued to recover in August, declining by 9% in annual terms against a decline of 17% a month earlier. Increased imports from Turkey (twice), Kazakhstan (by 55%), China (by 27%). At the same time, investment imports are recovering even faster – the annual rate of its decline decreased to 26% against 44% in August.

Earlier, the Central Bank recorded a noticeable contraction in the current account surplus in the third quarter (see Kommersant of October 12). From these data, it follows that imports of goods in July-September remained at the level of about $22 billion per month, while exports weakened by the end of the quarter and were likely to be below the levels of 2021, the authors of Hard Figures conclude.

Analysts at Raiffeisenbank note that if in the second quarter the downward dynamics of exports was more associated with the non-oil and gas sector (against the backdrop of complication of logistics under sanctions), then in the third quarter the “drawdown” fell on the oil and gas segment. Thus, ruble revenues to the budget from export duties on fuel in the third quarter decreased by 40% qoq (this indicator is now the best proxy for nominal export volumes), despite the relative weakening of the exchange rate. The value of seasonally adjusted imports remained close to the levels of the second quarter – $85 billion. – conclude in Raiffeisenbank.

Further, export energy prices will decline (discounts are likely to widen as the oil embargo approaches), while import prices will remain at high levels, hence the terms of trade will worsen, and the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (its purchasing power) will weaken, the authors conclude. “Hard numbers”.

Artem Chugunov