Import restriction hits exports – Newspaper Kommersant No. 18 (7463) dated 02/01/2023
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Over the year, the number of Russian companies under sanctions has almost doubled – from 1.6 thousand to 2.9 thousand, and taking into account affiliated legal entities, their number already reaches 10 thousand, analysts of the Kontur.Prisma service calculated. According to a survey of industrial enterprises conducted by the Bank of Russia, the loss of access to technologies and equipment has become the most sensitive for efficient exporting companies. The Central Bank notes that under such conditions, Russian exports may lose competitiveness and decrease even if supplies are reoriented to “friendly” countries. In 2023, the difficulties of companies may worsen, including due to the expansion of the secondary sanctions regime and the loss of already new supply chains.
By February 2023, 2.9 thousand Russian organizations fell under the sanctions of foreign countries, while before the start of the military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, there were 1.6 thousand legal entities on the sanctions lists, follows from a study by analysts from the Kontur.Prisma service. At the same time, due to the “50% rule” (restrictions apply to organizations that are more than half affiliated with a company that fell under direct sanctions), the number of sanctioned companies reached 9.8 thousand.
More than a third of the head sanctioned companies are registered in Moscow and the region – 1.1 thousand, in St. Petersburg and Crimea – 271 and 150, respectively. In other regions, their number does not exceed a hundred on average. In the sectoral context, companies from the field of research and development suffered the most – 230 legal entities, wholesale trade enterprises – 201, financial and educational institutions – 152 and 150, respectively. Most restrictions are imposed by Ukraine – 2373, USA – 1744, EU – 574, Japan – 428, Switzerland – 416.
A study by the Bank of Russia (based on a survey of enterprises conducted in July-August) shows that import restrictions have become a key problem for businesses: the deterioration of transportation conditions and the refusal of foreign companies to supply raw materials, components, spare parts and equipment. Demand-side restrictions, financial problems and export restrictions were less significant for the industrial sector. Exporting companies turned out to be the most vulnerable to import restrictions: such enterprises are important for economic recovery, since they are considered more competitive and efficient, including due to the introduction of technological foreign solutions. In 2022, only 39% of exporting companies hoped to completely solve the problem of purchasing raw materials and materials, 18% of machinery and equipment, and 28% of spare parts. For non-exporters, these figures are higher: 47%, 25% and 36% respectively.
The Central Bank believes that problems with the supply of the necessary imports can lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of Russian exports and limit its diversification, even with increased access to other export markets. Under the pressure of sanctions, some companies have already stopped exporting or reduced its volumes, both to “unfriendly” countries and to other markets due to the risks of secondary sanctions. Thus, the share of exporters among those surveyed by the Central Bank decreased from 58% to 52% by the previous round of such a study. Consulting and financial support for importers of such products can help maintain access to technologies and equipment, the Central Bank believes.
It should be noted that companies have already asked the government to expand support for imports: in particular, business was counting on the development of new tools as part of the “export” card “Transformation of the business climate”. The government did not receive support for the ideas, they consider the current measures sufficient: parallel imports, zeroing customs duties, lists of critical imports (see Kommersant of December 21, 2022). Business, meanwhile, fears the risks of activation of secondary sanctions in 2023, which will lead to the loss of alternative supply chains built last year.
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