IMF improves Russia’s GDP forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued report on the prospects for the development of the world economy. The organization expects that in 2022 Russia’s GDP will fall by 3.4% instead of 6%, which the Fund previously predicted. In 2023 – by 2.3% instead of 3.5%.

Petya Koeva-Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF Research Department, during a briefing devoted to the report, listed the factors that helped the Russian Federation to achieve such a result. “The first reason is that energy exports have survived as a result of redirecting exports to countries that did not impose sanctions. The second reason is that the share of the state in the economy is large, and the level of employment is actually at the pre-crisis level. The third reason is the strengthening of the ruble, due to which inflation turned out to be lower than previously predicted, which, of course, had a corresponding impact on the real incomes of the population, ”she said (quoted from TASS). Ms. Koeva-Brooks also noted that fiscal stimulus measures and the reduction of interest rates by the Central Bank influenced the forecast improvement.

In the same IMF report lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2023 is up to 2.7%, which is 0.2% lower than the July forecast. Global inflation will peak at 9.5% in 2022, by 2024 it will slow down to 4.1%.

By counting Ministry of Economy, the decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022 will be 2.9%, inflation – 12.4%. The government of the Russian Federation expects the economy to return to growth “in a little more than a year.” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predictsthat the Russian economy in 2022 will shrink by 5.5%, inflation will reach 13.9%.

On the dynamics of the economy – in the material “Kommersant” “Don’t rush to land”.

Olesya Pavlenko