IEA expects oil demand growth to slow down

The growth rate of oil demand in 2023 will slow to 1.6 million barrels per day (b / d) from 2.1 million b / d in 2022, follows from the November forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Against the backdrop of a worsening situation in the global economy, oil consumption in the fourth quarter of this year will be 240,000 barrels per day lower than it was a year ago – demand is affected by weakening economic growth in China, the energy crisis in the EU and the strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies countries.

The world oil supply in October, according to the IEA, increased by 410,000 bpd to 101.7 million bpd. But by the end of the year, it may be reduced by 1 million bpd – after the entry into force of an agreement to reduce production by OPEC+ countries (due to a reduction in quotas by 2 million bpd) and the imposition of an embargo on oil supplies from Russia to the EU countries , believe in the agency. In general, for this year, an increase in production by 4.6 million b/d will lead to an increase in supply to 99.9 million b/d. In 2023, production is expected to increase by only 740,000 bpd to 100.7 million bpd.

Russian production, according to the IEA, in October was 330 thousand b/d lower than before the start of the military operation – 9.72 million b/d (this is 1.29 million b/d below the target level agreed under the OPEC+). Compared to September, production decreased by 20 thousand b/d). Oil exports from Russia in October rose by 165,000 bpd to 7.7 million bpd. Deliveries to China and India remained at the same level (1.9 million b/d and 1.1 million b/d, respectively), while the reduction in exports to Turkey (to 500,000 b/d) was offset by export without specifying the destination. At the same time, the export revenue of the Russian Federation increased by $1.7 billion, to $17.3 billion.

Oil deliveries to the EU countries amounted to 1.4 million b/d, which is 1.1 million b/d less than before the conflict in Ukraine. Exports of petroleum products to Europe fell by 300,000 bpd to 1 million bpd. Once the embargo comes into force, it will be necessary to replace 1.1 million b/d of crude oil and 1 million b/d of oil products, the IEA points out, noting that a shortage of ships, especially ice-class ones, needed to transport oil from ports may become an obstacle to redirecting supplies. in the Baltic. In turn, competition for supplies from other manufacturers will increase, but rising prices could negatively affect fuel consumption, the IEA warns.

Tatyana Edovina