HSE: Russia’s Economy Has Stopped Giving “Warning Signals”

The D-DESI composite indicator fell below the 30% threshold for the first time since January 14 in the middle of the week from August 9 to 15. Thus, the Russian economy has ceased to give “alarm signals”, follows from the “Daily Economic Stress-Index” (Daily Economic Stress-Index, DESI), authored by Sergey Smirnov, Deputy Director of the Institute “Development Center” HSE.

The author of the index notes that it is too early to talk about overcoming the most acute phase of the crisis. At the same time, most financial indicators no longer show an increased level of stress in the economy. Alarm signals are still given by the Russian market volatility index and the spread between the buying and selling rates of cash currency.

“The downturn in economic activity has clearly not been as deep and is not unfolding as quickly as it was expected a few months ago. Moreover, it can be stated that there is a certain downward trend in stress levels, so the decline in the second half of this year may not be stronger than it was in the second quarter,” the press release says.

According to Sergei Smirnov, the greatest risk to aggravate the situation is associated with a possible decline in oil prices. At the same time, the current level of oil prices, despite the discount on Urals, is quite comfortable for the economy.

On the state of the Russian economy – in the material “Kommersant” “Let’s Eat Ours”.

Anastasia Larina