How the US is trying to contain escalation in the Middle East

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Washington will provide emergency military assistance to Israel. He made this statement on October 12 against the backdrop of the IDF’s battles with Hamas: the issue became key during Blinken’s negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “The message I bring to Israel is that you can be strong enough to defend yourself, but as long as America exists, you will never have to. We will always be by your side,” Blinken said at a press conference following the meeting.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Tel Aviv has sent several requests for military assistance to Washington, The Washington Post reported, citing sources. On October 10, the Americans sent their first plane with ammunition to the Nabatim airbase in southern Israel. According to the IDF press service, these munitions are intended to “inflict significant attacks” on Gaza. US President Joe Biden has already promised to increase the supply of American weapons to Israel, including ammunition and interceptor missiles for the Iron Dome air defense system.

The delivery of military equipment to Israel comes as American arsenals are depleted due to ongoing US military assistance to Ukraine. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon has $5.2 billion worth of ammunition for Kiev – the remainder of the $43.7 billion. On October 11, Time, citing sources, reported that the Biden administration and leading congressmen are developing an additional package of military aid to Tel Aviv for the amount of $2 billion in addition to the $3 billion that Washington annually allocates to the Israeli government for military needs.

The United States still has the resources to provide military and other assistance to Israel, says Lev Sokolshchik, a researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. The prospects for increasing the volume of this assistance, according to the expert, will be obvious after the appointment of a new Speaker of the House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy, who was removed on October 3.

Blinken may try to convince Netanyahu and his entourage to refrain from further escalation, says Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The Gaza Strip, from where Israel was attacked on October 7 by Hamas militants, has been under blockade by the IDF since October 9. Since October 8, Tel Aviv has interrupted the supply of electricity and water to the enclave. The Israeli bombing has left at least 340,000 Gazans (out of 2.3 million) homeless, with about 220,000 sheltering in 92 schools run by the international organization, according to the UN.

Despite understanding the possible risks of conducting a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli authorities are not yet willing to make concessions, says Samarskaya. “Tel Aviv’s initial unpreparedness for attacks from Hamas caused enormous damage to Israel’s image in the region, and these losses, according to the country’s government, need to be compensated,” the expert notes.

Blinken discussed in Israel the release of hostages kidnapped by Palestinian militants and their safe removal from the Gaza Strip ahead of a possible ground operation by the Israeli army in the Arab enclave. In total, Hamas militants may be holding captives, according to The Times of Israel, about 150 citizens of different countries.

Reuters, citing an anonymous senior State Department official, reported that during the negotiations, the American diplomat planned to raise the issue of the passage of foreigners, including Americans, from besieged Gaza to safe areas. “There are about 500-600 Palestinian Americans living in the enclave. Some of them want to leave the region. We are working to organize their safe departure,” the agency’s interlocutor said.

Vedomosti also wrote on October 12 that there are about 2,000 Russian citizens throughout the formal territory of the Palestinian Authority, of which 1,200 are in the Gaza Strip, besieged by the Israeli army and controlled by the Hamas movement. At the moment, about 300 Russians have expressed a desire to leave the Gaza Strip.

Blinken did not limit himself to communicating with the Israeli side. He has already held talks with King Abdullah II of Jordan, and on October 13 he intends to meet with Chairman of the Palestinian National Authority Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, Reuters reports.

The American Secretary of State’s trip to the Middle East is aimed at preserving Washington’s influence in the region and reducing the risks of expanding the conflict through potential direct intervention by Iran on the side of Palestinian militants, Sokolshchik believes. “The United States has long promoted Israel’s dialogue with Arab states, primarily with Saudi Arabia, so it will struggle to maintain this fragile channel of communication,” the expert added.

According to Ivan Bocharov, coordinator of the Russian International Affairs Council, Blinken’s success in deterring neighbors and Iran from potentially interfering in the conflict will depend on the actions of Israel itself. “No one hopes for peace negotiations now; the main goal is to prevent an even deeper crisis in the entire region,” the expert concluded.