How the Central Bank sees the development of the Russian and world economy

The Central Bank presented three main scenarios for the development of the Russian economy: “Basic”, “Increased Fragmentation” and “Risk”. In each of the options, the trajectory of change in Russia is largely dependent on external circumstances. The situation abroad, primarily in developed countries, is a determining factor. Among the main ones are the speed of fragmentation of the world economy, inflation and, as a result, monetary policy in developed countries, the stability of developing countries borrowed in foreign currency, as well as changes in the geopolitical situation, primarily new sanctions. This is stated in the draft “Guidelines for a unified state monetary policy for 2024 and the period of 2025 and 2026” (the ONEGDKP project).