How many good choices – Newspaper Kommersant No. 1 (7446) dated 01/09/2023

The Single Voting Day (SVD) in 2023 will be the largest in several years and the last before the 2024 presidential campaign. It will affect almost half of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including four new regions, if martial law is lifted there or the State Duma adopts amendments that allow elections to be held in this situation as well. Governors will be elected in 25 subjects, deputies of legislative assemblies in 20, deputies of administrative centers in 11. Election campaigns will overlap in every fifth region, while in Yakutia and Khakassia they will take place at all three levels at once. However, despite the scale, EDG-2023 is unlikely to bring surprises like the second round of the gubernatorial election five years ago, experts believe.

In September 2023, the powers of 21 Russian governors expire. The vast majority of them are the “conscripts” of 2018, finalizing their first term (heads of the Amur, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Magadan, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Oryol, Pskov, Samara and Tyumen regions, Altai, Krasnoyarsk and Primorsky territories, Kuzbass, Khakassia, Yakutia, as well as the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug). Five years ago, all of them, with the exception of the acting governor of Yamal, Dmitry Artyukhov, were elected in direct elections (since 2015, the head of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug has been approved by the regional parliament).

Governor of the Moscow Region Andrei Vorobyov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin are ending their second and third terms, respectively (Mr. Sobyanin was approved by the Moscow City Duma in 2010, was early elected in direct elections in 2013 and was re-elected in 2018). Finally, the main “long-liver” of this cycle is the head of Chukotka, Roman Kopin, who has been in office since 2008.

Many governors have already announced plans to run for a new term. For example, back in the summer of 2022, the head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov, and the Oryol governor Andrei Klychkov, representing the Communist Party, spoke about this. In autumn and winter, they were joined by Krasnoyarsk governor Alexander Uss, Pskov’s Mikhail Vedernikov, and the head of Yakutia, Aisen Nikolaev (all United Russia members).

It is still unknown whether the traditional spring rotation of the governor corps will take place this year and whether it will increase the number of elective regions (in the spring of 2022, only five governors were replaced, all of them on the expiring term, and the Kremlin completely abandoned the autumn “governor fall”), but there will probably be more new leaders following the results of the EDG-2023 than five years ago, due to the election of the heads of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) and the governors of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. The first two will be approved by the parliaments of the republics, the corresponding provisions are included in their constitutions (see Kommersant of December 30). The procedure for electing governors of new regions has not yet been determined.

Recall that since October 20, 2022, martial law has been in effect in the territory of the four annexed regions, during which elections are not held, but the constitutional laws on the formation of new subjects of the Russian Federation state that the legislative bodies there should be formed on the second Sunday of September 2023. Earlier, Vedomosti wrote that the presidential administration was discussing various options for holding elections to legislative assemblies. A source in the leadership of one of the republics told Kommersant that, most likely, the elections will take place.

In addition to the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, elections for representatives of both branches of regional government will be held simultaneously in Ivanovo and Kemerovo regions. In the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Tyumen Region, together with the governors, deputies of the parliaments of the regional capitals will be elected, and in Yakutia and Khakassia – all together. Elections to the Arkhangelsk Regional Assembly of Deputies and the Arkhangelsk City Duma will also “intersect”. Of particular interest are the elections of the mayor of Khabarovsk, which will also be held on September 10. Khabarovsk remains one of six regional capitals where the mayor is elected by popular vote. At the end of last year, direct elections were abolished in Tomsk, which intensified talk about the possibility of such a reform in Khabarovsk as well. But so far, both city and regional authorities have denied plans to abolish direct elections.

Recall that EDG-2018 has become the leader in the number of second rounds in the gubernatorial elections since their return in 2012. Then, in four constituent entities at once – Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, Vladimir Region and Khakassia – the first round did not reveal a winner, and according to the results of the second rounds, opposition candidates won in three constituent entities (in Primorye, the results of the second round were canceled, and in the new elections the winner was appointed by the president Acting Governor Oleg Kozhemyako). Of these, only the Khakass communist Valentin Konovalov completes his term until the end of his term.

If Mr. Konovalov does not resign and runs for a new term, then the gubernatorial campaign in Khakassia may become one of the most competitive this time, political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko believes. In this case, the opponent of the communist from the “United Russia” may be the Khakass State Duma deputy Sergei Sokol, who “gained popularity” in the special operation zone. The expert assesses the chances of two other oppositionists – the Oryol communist Andrei Klychkov and the Omsk Socialist-Revolutionary Alexander Burkov – to retain their posts and be re-elected, since they were originally appointed by the president. “There will be a training campaign for opposition parties in Moscow (before the presidential elections.— “b”), it is unlikely that any of them will seriously fight for the mayor’s chair. So far, the campaign looks like a rather calm and referendum one,” says Mr. Minchenko.

Political scientist Rostislav Turovsky doubts the possibility of repeating the situation of EDG-2018 with the second rounds: “The probability of a protest vote is low, since none of the current opposition will raise a wave of protest. Dissatisfied voters will generally not go to the polls. But it is possible that some of them will vote for weak oppositionists. However, this is unlikely to lead to their victories: the authorities, having learned from experience, will not allow a repetition of the scenarios of 2018.” However, in general, it is too early to predict the scale of a possible protest vote, since it is not clear what the socio-economic situation will be like by summer-autumn, the expert adds.

Andrew Ashes