How did the NATO summit in Vilnius end for Ukraine?

The G7 countries, following the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, adopted a joint statement on security guarantees for Ukraine and promised it to “permanently” provide prompt military and financial assistance “in the event of a future armed attack by Russia,” the AFP agency reports. According to the Financial Times, specifically, we are talking about the obligations of the West to supply modern equipment for the army, navy and air force of Ukraine, to strengthen the exchange of intelligence data, to expand the training of the Ukrainian military and their participation in joint military exercises. The document does not mention the participation of the troops of the G7 countries in the conflict.

“We will work with Ukraine on concrete security commitments on a bilateral basis to ensure long-term opportunities (for Kiev. – Vedomosti) to defend Ukraine today and deter Russia in the future,” the AFP document quoted. In addition, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on ABC News on July 12 that Ukraine “with a high probability” will receive F-16 fighters from European countries that have these aircraft.

Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on the member countries of the alliance to provide Ukraine with long-term support. Stoltenberg made a corresponding statement on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius at a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We must ensure that when [конфликт] ends, we will have sufficient mechanisms for the security of Ukraine,” the Secretary General of the alliance stressed.

In response, Zelensky again lamented that his country was not invited to NATO following the Vilnius summit. The importance of the security guarantees that the West will provide, Zelensky acknowledged, but added that they should not be created “instead of NATO membership.” The Ukrainian leader assessed the results of the summit as good, while again noting that if Kiev received an invitation to the alliance, they would be “ideal”.

In addition, on July 12, the first meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council promised to Zelensky took place. It is assumed that in the new body, the members of the alliance and Kyiv “sit as equal members” to “advance political dialogue, participation, cooperation and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for NATO membership.”

At the summit in Vilnius, Ukraine was not provided with an invitation to the alliance and schedules for joining NATO. According to Stoltenberg, the solution of these issues is impossible without first stopping the conflict.

Moscow reacted negatively to the decision of the G7 to provide security guarantees to Kyiv. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision violated the principle of the indivisibility of security. “That is, by providing security guarantees to Ukraine, they encroach on the security of the Russian Federation,” Peskov said. The consequences of such actions, he added, could be “very, very negative.”

The United States has repeatedly expressed its readiness to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on the Israeli model, without NATO membership, said Oleg Barabanov, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

“The decision at the summit in Vilnius is rather symbolic. Kyiv has long been trying to obtain long-term legal obligations from members of the alliance to protect Ukraine in the event of military aggression,” the expert said. These obligations, according to Barabanov, from the point of view of the Ukrainian authorities, can play a positive role in negotiations with Russia in the event of a possible freezing of the conflict and give guarantees that hostilities will not resume in the future.

The joint statement of the G7 leaders is an attempt to satisfy Zelensky’s demands without providing a roadmap for his country’s membership in NATO, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine department at the Institute of CIS Countries, believes. This means fixing the obligations of the alliance states for the supply of military equipment, including long-range weapons, F-16 fighters, the transfer of intelligence, etc. to Kiev, the expert continues.

Skorikov believes that following the summit, NATO members are likely to increase arms supplies to the Ukrainian side: “Earlier, the French president announced an increase in military assistance to Kyiv [Эмманюэль] Macron, British Prime Minister [Риши] Sunak.

Washington is not opposed to transferring cluster munitions to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the expert notes. The Russian side stressed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine used them to strike at civilian targets, there is a risk of repetition of incidents and the Russian Federation will fight this.

That is, Ukraine, Skorikov notes, “will continue to function as a frontier in the confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance.” At the same time, according to the expert, the decisions at the summit in Vilnius will not have a serious impact on the nature of the Ukrainian crisis.

The decision to establish the Ukraine-NATO Council has a similar formal meaning, Timofey Bordachev, the research director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, is sure. “This institution has no practical use in Kyiv’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance. For example, formally Ukraine will be added to the format of the meeting of the Ramstein group without the right to vote or one protocol event will be added during the visit of a Ukrainian official, but this does not change the essence: Ukraine is not going to be accepted into the military bloc,” the expert concluded.