Households returned to active spending in the second week of January 2024

Leading proxy indicators point to households returning to active spending in the second week of January 2024, which was not the case in previous years (see chart). According to the Romir agency, the average weekly bill (measuring the consumption of 40 thousand people from 15 thousand households in 220 cities with a population of 10 thousand) from January 8 to January 14, 2024 reached the level of the end of October – beginning of November 2023, exceeding the first week of January by 0.56%, and the level of the beginning of 2023 by 20%. This could be explained by inflation, however, in the first week of January 2024, price growth slowed down (see Kommersant on January 15) and there were no prerequisites for a noticeable acceleration of inflation. The dynamics of spending is also confirmed by Sberindex data. After a drawdown in the first week of January (an increase of 7.8% y/y), the volume of consumer spending on Sber cards in the second week of the month jumped by 12.4% y/y, and the dynamics of consumption of manufactured goods returned to the levels of late October – early December 2023 of the year. “The dynamics for most expense categories in the week of January 8–14, 2024 looked better than the dynamics for the same period in 2023,” Sberbank notes.

As previously shown by the Central Bank, time ruble deposits of the population in December 2024 increased by 1.5 trillion rubles. (by 5.9% per month) amid rapid growth in deposit rates (the maximum, according to the Central Bank, increased in December from 13.6% to 14.75%). At the same time, foreign currency deposits decreased significantly (by $9 billion), some of them, most likely, turned into rubles, some into cash, notes Yegor Susin from Gazprombank. “This is (an increase in citizens’ time deposits.— “Kommersant”) is not the story of one month; if you adjust for seasonality, time deposits are actively growing for five months in a row,” he notes. Against this background, according to Frank RG, cash loans in December 2023 fell by 9% and by 22% in annual terms.

Probably, a surge in consumption in the first working week of 2024 is the decision of citizens to spend rubles or foreign currency from time deposits. Consumer confidence can be supported not only by still high inflation, but also by a critical shortage of personnel. The economy’s need for workers is at a historical maximum: 3.1 people per 100 employed (0.6 higher than at the end of 2021), analysts of the Telegram channel “Hard Figures” calculated.

Artem Chugunov