Hold on to the base – Newspaper Kommersant No. 59 (7504) dated 04/06/2023

According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, oil and gas revenues of the budget fell by 45% compared to the same period last year. In March, compared to February, against the backdrop of low prices for Urals (less than $50 per barrel), both the mineral extraction tax and the export duty decreased. However, the additional income tax (ATT) that is irregularly received by the budget still pulled the March collections “in plus” relative to the February level, as a result, in March, for the first time this year, the Ministry of Finance managed to collect the base amount of oil and gas revenues. In the future, the current increase in world oil prices caused by the decision of OPEC + gives hope for an increase in fees to the authorities – already in April, taxes to the Russian budget will be calculated from the price of Brent minus $34, then the discount will decrease down to $25.

Budget revenues from the production and sale of oil and gas in March amounted to 688 billion rubles, follows from the published by the Ministry of Finance data. This is much less (by 43%) than it was a year earlier, but almost a third more than received in February 2023 (521 billion rubles). However, the March increase is purely seasonal. The entire amount of the increase falls on the AIT, which goes to the budget only four times a year (excluding recalculations) and in the amount of 221 billion was paid at the end of the year on March 28.

In general, for the first quarter of oil and gas revenues, 1.635 trillion rubles were collected for the budget, which is 45% less than in the previous year (2.974 trillion). It should be noted that, unlike in January and February, in March the budget managed to reach the base level of oil and gas revenues planned for the month (675.5 billion rubles) and even exceed this threshold by a symbolic 13 billion rubles. The base level, we recall, is 8 trillion rubles spread over the months. annual revenues, the minimum required to meet budget expenditures. Amounts above this threshold are considered additional income and, according to the budget rule, should be accumulated in the NWF, and not spent on current needs.

But the Ministry of Finance does not count on additional income in April, but, on the contrary, is waiting for a “shortage” in the amount of 114 billion rubles, so the budget rule will again work in a “non-standard” direction: the Ministry of Finance will not buy, but sell foreign currency from reserves to receive the missing oil and gas rubles .

On Wednesday, the department announced that it would send 74.6 billion rubles worth of yuan for sale – 3.7 billion rubles each. in a day.

Such interventions, carried out in the foreign exchange market with the help of the Central Bank, will be carried out from April 7 to May 5. In the previous month, the Ministry of Finance sent for the sale of yuan in the amount of 5.4 billion rubles. daily, which, as you know, did not particularly prevent the weakening of the ruble.

According to the Ministry of Finance, in March, the severance tax collection fell from 644 billion to 563 billion rubles compared to February, and the export duty fell from 56 billion to 50 billion rubles. The March production cut by 0.5 million barrels announced by Russia (later extended until the end of the year) could not affect this yet – in March, the oilmen submitted a declaration and paid the MET on February production. However, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil exports (together with oil products, on which the EU embargo was introduced on February 5 – they apparently accounted for the main reduction) in February fell by the same 500 thousand barrels per day. From the reports of the Russian Rosstat, it follows that oil production in Russia in February decreased by 8.5% compared to January, to 9.94 million barrels per day.

Recallthat at the price of $70.1 per barrel budgeted for 2023, Urals cost only $47.85 in March and $49.56 in February. To reduce budget losses, from April the Ministry of Finance will calculate taxes not from the actual price of Urals, but based on the price of Brent reduced by a fixed discount (if this option is more profitable for the budget). In April, the discount will be $34, then for three months in a row it will decrease by $3, to $25 (the March discount for Urals to Brent was, according to various estimates, $30-31 per barrel). If the current rise in Brent prices, fueled by the OPEC+ decision to cut production, continues, the new formula could benefit the Russian budget a little more. On Wednesday, Brent traded at $84-85 per barrel, with an April discount of $34, which means that the “tax price” of Russian oil will slightly exceed $50. When substantiating the formula, the Ministry of Finance believed that it would save the budget this year approximately 660 billion rubles.

Vadim Visloguzov