Growing demand for engineers reduces requirements for entering universities

In the medium term, the shortage of highly qualified engineering personnel, and above all IT specialists, may be closed in the Russian Federation, and solving the problem of the shortage of other engineering and technical specialties will require more time. This conclusion was reached at the Institute of Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, after analyzing data on the training of highly qualified engineers. The need for appropriate personnel has increased due to the authorities’ demands for the “technological sovereignty” of the Russian Federation. However, the resulting increase in enrollment in engineering studies creates a demand for applicants with a low level of preparation.

ISSEK analyzed data on the training of highly qualified engineers. This is one of the government’s priorities—the authorities see universities as one of the key participants in the implementation of the concept of “technological sovereignty.” Data for 2021–2023 already record an increase in enrollment of students in engineering and technical programs of bachelor’s, specialist and master’s degrees – from 357.2 thousand students in 2021 (an increase of 4.5%), the figure increased to 387.7 thousand in 2022 year (an increase of 8.5%) and 409.9 thousand in 2023 (an increase of 5.7%), the share of such students reached 31.8% of the total enrollment. At the same time, the main increase was in several areas with a maximum in the field of information science and computer technology (an increase of 38.1% in 2023 compared to 2020).

At the same time, according to ISSEK estimates, the demand for engineers grew faster: to 79.8 thousand people in 2022 – 43.5% higher than in 2021. Trends indicate a possible partial closure in the medium term of the deficit, primarily of IT specialists; this will await the rest of the consumers of engineering and technical workers in the longer term, summarizes ISSEK. Expanding education in engineering, technology and technical sciences supports the admission of applicants with a low level of training. For example, in 2023, the average score of those admitted to budgetary bachelor’s programs was 68 versus an average of 70.3 (for similar programs in arts and culture – 79.6; social sciences – 78.9; humanities – 75.3).

Along with the increase in enrollment over the past three years, ISSEK has recorded a paradoxical decline over a number of years in the production of bachelors, specialists, masters, including in engineering, technology and technical sciences: in 2023, their reduction compared to 2013 was 20.8 % (from 290 thousand in 2013 to 229.7 thousand in 2023). Per 10 thousand people employed in the economy, the output of engineering personnel for the period 2013–2022 decreased from 43 to 33 people. However, as ISSEK explained to Kommersant, the main increase in enrollment has occurred in recent years, and it has not yet had time to be realized in graduation (students have not yet completed their studies). Note that in 2023, compared to 2019, the share of graduates in the field of computer science and computer technology increased most (from 3.4% to 4.6% of the total graduation rate), and decreased in the field of engineering and construction technology (from 3 .5% to 3.2%), as well as applied geology, oil and gas engineering and geodesy (from 2.7% to 2.4%).

Now the shortage of engineering personnel is especially felt in industry, the authorities complain. To train a new generation of engineers, the government is implementing the “Advanced Engineering Schools” project – they are now open at 30 universities, and by the end of the year their number should grow to 50. At the same time, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted on February 13 at a strategic session on ensuring technological growth, educational institutions are updating educational programs – new formats of internships and internships are being introduced. As follows from the development strategy of Bauman MSTU until 2030, the transformation of the training of engineering personnel for technological sovereignty also involves the transition to the creation of ready-made engineering teams for the industry at universities.

However, according to HSE data, the shortage of engineering personnel in the Russian labor market may be significantly overestimated: “survey” data cited by employers in recent years may be distorted by the shortage of workers in hard-to-fill jobs with low pay, while macro data on the labor market and statistics on the salaries of such specialists have not previously confirmed the presence of a structural shortage of engineers over a long horizon (see Kommersant of April 13, 2023).

Venera Petrova