Grain deal talks gain new momentum

In Hungary, on August 20, solemn events took place on the occasion of St. Stephen’s Day, that is, the founding of the Hungarian statehood. Prime Minister Viktor Orban was visited by prominent guests, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Head of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov arrived from Russia.

According to TRT, citing sources in the Erdogan administration, he was supposed to discuss with Orban the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and the development of a roadmap to ensure security in the Black Sea after the termination of the grain deal. The last time the head of Tatarstan was in Hungary was in 2016.

And on August 18, the German tabloid Bild, citing sources, reported that Russia, Turkey and Qatar were preparing a new agreement to replace the broken grain deal and that it could allegedly be signed already in Budapest. At the time of submission of the material, this did not happen, and Minnikhanov’s participation in international negotiations was not officially confirmed.

Minnikhanov himself, on his Telegram channel on August 19, confirmed his arrival in Budapest, writing that they “talked with Mr. [Орбаном] about what contribution Tatarstan makes to strengthening Russian-Hungarian relations”. On August 20, a message appeared on the website of the head of Tatarstan that Minnikhanov had met with the President of the Republic of Serbian Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik.

In total, according to the Hirado portal, the Hungarian prime minister was supposed to hold 15 bilateral meetings with politicians from different countries over three days, timed to coincide with both the national holiday and the start of the World Championships in athletics. It is known that in addition to the named leaders, the leaders of Serbia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan were in Hungary last weekend. With the latter, Budapest, in particular, has concluded a political agreement on gas supplies to Hungary, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations Peter Szijjarto said.

At the same time, the Turkish newspaper Sabah, citing sources, reported that Ankara and the UN are developing project proposals for the resumption of the grain deal, and technical negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on this issue can allegedly be held in Istanbul. RIA Novosti, citing sources in the negotiation process, later reported that work was underway, but the date of the meeting had not yet been determined.

According to the Bild newspaper, official correspondence between the Foreign Ministry and the embassies of Russia and Turkey from July 21 to August 8 came into its possession. According to it, Moscow warned Ankara in advance about withdrawing from the grain deal, and now, together with Qatar, they are discussing the details of a new agreement on the supply of Russian grain to poor countries in Africa. It was noted that Turkey acts as an organizer, and Qatar as a sponsor of the deliveries. At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan continues to urge Moscow to resume the previous grain deal so that grain is also supplied from Ukraine.

On August 16, Russian Ambassador to Turkey Alexei Yerkhov said that Moscow was working on alternatives to the Black Sea grain initiative to deliver food to countries in need, without giving specific details. And on August 15, the WSJ wrote that Washington was in talks with Ankara, Kiev and other Eastern European states to create an alternative route to transport Ukrainian grain along the Danube River and across the Black Sea to nearby ports in Romania, and from there to other destinations. The plan provides for an increase in Ukraine’s capacity for transportation from October to 4 million tons of Ukrainian grain per month along the Danube. At the same time, it was emphasized that the new route would become longer and more expensive.

On July 17, Russia refused to renew the grain deal, concluded with the mediation of representatives of the UN and Turkey. According to Bloomberg, grain exports from Ukraine fell by 30% after this decision by Moscow. It was argued in Moscow by the lack of progress in the implementation of the Russian part of the deal. In particular, Russia stated that before a possible return to the deal, it wants to reconnect Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT payment system, facilitate the insurance of ships with grain, restore the operation of the Odessa-Tolyatti ammonia pipeline, lift the ban on the supply of spare parts for agricultural machinery, unblock foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies, associated with the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.

Hungary has strong ties with Tatarstan, says Kirill Teremetsky, an expert at the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. Budapest has repeatedly stated that it intends to develop relations with this Russian region in a positive way further, for example, by providing scholarships to local students. The Hungarians are interested both in working with the Turks – in the Organization of Turkic States (where they act as observers), and in the de facto triangle Turkey – Hungary – Tatarstan, the expert adds.

Orban would be very pleased if peace initiatives on Ukraine were also discussed on his platform, which could be conveyed to the Russian side through the head of Tatarstan, the expert believes. At the same time, the US and many EU countries are certainly not encouraged by such negotiations, he adds. Minnikhanov does not have the authority to sign any agreements on behalf of all of Russia, but through him, as an important political figure, some important information can be transmitted, Teremetsky believes.

Minnikhanov, most likely, received some instructions in Russia and, most likely, he really negotiated in Hungary, including on a grain deal, says Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. This may be one of the preliminary steps to reach a new agreement, he said, including ahead of a possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan. Therefore, Minnikhanov can reveal Russia’s position more clearly and listen to the Turkish one in order to find ways to reach a compromise, Semyonov believes.