Governors were checked for anti-crisis ability – Newspaper Kommersant No. 241 (7442) of 12/27/2022
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Russian governors have approached the most difficult stage of political management since the start of the special military operation (SVO), the authors of the report “Anti-crisis strategies of the heads of Russian regions in 2022”, prepared by the communication agency Minchenko Consulting, state. In the context of a falling economy, they have to look for new growth points, as well as experiment with their image and master unusual channels of communication with the population. At the same time, the heads of regions rarely think strategically, trying to resolve crisis situations manually – “here and now,” experts say.
In the medium term, the vast majority of Russian regions may face an economic crisis, “some manifestations of which are already being read,” the authors of the report predict. According to Minchenko Consulting, the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of Rosstat for January-September 2022 points to “crisis trends in all areas.” Thus, in 73 subjects the real incomes of the population decreased (most of all in Ingushetia – by 7.3%), in 42 subjects industrial production decreased (on Sakhalin – by 24.6%), in 36 subjects construction fell (in the Penza region – by 35 .1%), and in 32 – investments in fixed capital (in the Astrakhan region – by 42%).
At the same time, governors do not have so many tools to minimize the consequences of economic problems, but there are plenty of obstacles. These are “extremely high volatility of socio-psychological moods” with a possible “increase in society’s fatigue from the SVO”, and “an acute shortage of resources for the formation of a “development budget”, and “the risk of growing intra-elite contradictions”, and, finally, savings in the cost of landscaping and infrastructure, which usually allowed “to get a clear visual result in the short term.”
After the start of the special operation, most governors focused on socio-economic issues, heading anti-crisis headquarters, but “the political narrative of the NVO has not become a common denominator everywhere,” the study notes.
For example, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin “minimizes PR coverage of his participation in events related to the political rhetoric of the SVO.” But the governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, on the contrary, “preferred the active promotion of the political agenda of the SVO”, which helped him “stop the risks from an intra-elite conflict” with St. Petersburg businessman and founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin “and become almost the most involved in the subject of a special operation” by the head of the region.
“Governors who actively support the NVO get the opportunity to reconfigure their positioning in order to go beyond the image of a “technocratic governor,” the report says. Active participation in the Donbass restoration agenda, humanitarian projects, and the ideology of the NVO can increase media visibility and bring regional heads to the federal agenda . However, it cannot be said that such a positioning strategy is devoid of risks – there may be an imbalance between the PR component and the real work on economic stabilization. Focus groups are already recording negative attitudes towards overly frilly moves by governors.”
Among the regional leaders who are actively “playing the SVO card”, Minchenko Consulting experts single out Oleg Kozhemyako (Primorye), who regularly visits Donbass, Vasily Golubev (Rostov Region), who proposed creating the Donbass macroregion, Vadim Shumkov (Kurgan Region) – for his “outstanding” Telegram channel “SilaVpravde”, as well as the heads of “front-line” subjects – for obvious reasons. “Perhaps the tone of their work was set by Vyacheslav Gladkov (Governor of the Belgorod Region.— “b”), who personally goes to the places of shelling, quickly conveys the latest information and sometimes makes targeted decisions on specific assistance to the victims, ”the study notes.
Its authors also come to the conclusion that the “import substitution” of Western social networks on Telegram, which had to be forced after the start of the NWO, was not an easy task for the governors.
The heads of the same “front-line” regions, who were forced to promptly notify the population about the latest incidents and anti-crisis measures, coped with it more successfully than others.
As for reconfiguring the growth points of the economy, “most governors prefer to do their best to solve problems “here and now”, hardly thinking about the strategic component,” the report says: “Nevertheless, some are trying to find new points of growth that go beyond framework of the notorious import substitution and are designed to increase long-term strategic stability. In this regard, Minchenko Consulting distinguishes two promising strategies: the conscious attraction of investments in “non-traditional” economic sectors (for example, the IT sector in Yakutia) and the “regional turn to the East”.
In the context of many stressful contexts faced by governors, experts note the importance of an “adequate balance” between the federal agenda and regional gaps, the development of communication tools (live broadcasts, etc.), minimizing officialdom and attracting federal money. “In this regard, the ability of the regions to go through the crisis phase without critical losses will depend on the managerial talents of the heads of regions and their teams. Moreover, no one removed the old duties from governors, for example, in terms of relocating citizens from dilapidated housing or attracting investments, ”the authors of the report summarize.
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