Gloomy forecasts for the Russian grain harvest provoked uncomfortable questions

President of the Russian Grain Union Zlochevsky: “Agrarians do not have enough money and spare parts”

The further the battle for the harvest progresses, the more clearly domestic farmers feel the consequences of Western sanctions. According to the forecasts of the Russian Grain Union (RGU), grain losses in the country this year may reach 15% of the possible harvest, and this is significantly higher than in previous years. Of course, weather disasters contribute to these losses. But the main reason is the decline in manufacturability. As the peasants themselves explain, if earlier an imported agricultural combine broke down in the field, the necessary spare part could be obtained in a day, but now the equipment has been idle for weeks. Will Russia and other countries face food shortages as a result, and what will happen to grain prices? About this “MK” said the president of the RGU Arkady Zlochevsky.

– What grain do we lose in the first place: wheat? And how serious is this figure – 15% losses?

-15% is the loss of grain in general. The numbers are serious, but not fatal. Even in the spring, it was clear that this year the losses would be greater than usual. We must understand that this time we will lose 7-9% more than usual. Every year we lost 6-7% – this is the standard.

– The main reasons for the increase in losses?

– The weather has an effect. The summer is rainy, the grain from the fields is wet, and the refraction (the proportion of rejects. – “MK”) will be higher. This is a significant reduction in the final indicators. In addition, due to the delay in harvesting, optimal weather windows are missed, as a result, the grain germinates. This leads to big losses. In addition, the grain lays down. That is, the stem spreads along the ground, the grain is formed frail, with a lower content of nutrients. Mechanization of harvesting during lodging is difficult, losses increase. But the main negative factor is the decline in manufacturability. Continued rains are a secondary reason. Much more important is the fact that farmers do not have enough money, equipment, spare parts. Servicing imported harvesters is becoming more and more difficult and it is very felt. The entire production chain was shattered. Someone cannot buy crop protection products from diseases and pests, from this loss – either the crop is sick or it is eaten.

– If the problem of supplies of fertilizers and components for imported equipment is not solved, what could be the consequences?

– If we talk about components for domestically produced equipment, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expects to solve the problem by the New Year. As for imported combines, the situation is more complicated. It will take much longer to resolve the issue. The main problem is not that there are no spare parts at all, but that previously the necessary parts could be obtained within a day, but now you have to wait at least a week. And this time the equipment is idle.

-Let’s assume that the authorities will not be able to resolve the issue promptly. Losses will continue to grow and go beyond 15%?

– Yes. But these are losses during cleaning. It is necessary to look at other parameters and processes. We still have to live until the spring harvest. In the autumn it is necessary to sow the grain. We have problems with that too.

– How will these losses affect the domestic and world grain markets?

– The needs of our own market will be satisfied anyway and in full. Deliveries to the foreign market are already declining. And this process does not depend on Russia. We began to buy less grain. This is the decision of the importers themselves and it is connected, first of all, with international sanctions and the risks arising from them. Even our regular customers – for example, Egypt – are switching to suppliers from other countries.

– Let’s take a closer look at the example of the same Egypt. Previously, the main grain exporters for the Land of the Pyramids were Russia and Ukraine. In particular, more than 8 million tons of wheat were exported from the Russian Federation in 2021, which accounted for 74.5% of the total amount of grain imported into the country. Egypt has now abandoned our products. Will he have difficulty switching to other providers?

– I do not think that Egypt will face serious difficulties or shortage of grain. There is an alternative. Competitors in the world market are fighting for each buyer. And they are ready to offer reasonable prices. Now Egypt has switched to products from France. The country is also counting on supplies from Romania and Bulgaria. So that. In principle, there is no problem with deliveries. The problem is that cooperation with Russia for Egypt means good logistics and good grain quality.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 28843 dated August 10, 2022

Newspaper headline:
Combines lose parts in the battle for the harvest