global oil demand by the end of 2023 may increase to 101.7 million bpd
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Global oil demand at the end of 2023 may increase by 2.27 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2022, to 101.7 million b/d, according to the December report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Last month, the agency predicted a slightly larger increase of 2.36 million bpd. The revision of estimates is explained by the projected weakening of oil demand: the IEA expects its growth in the fourth quarter to be 1.9 million bpd after 2.8 million bpd in the third. The slowdown in economic growth in OECD countries will most noticeably affect demand dynamics in October-December.
The most significant increase in demand for oil in the fourth quarter, by 1.7 million bpd year on year, is in China, the IEA believes. It is expected that by the end of 2023, demand in this country will be 16.4 million bpd, which is 2.3 million bpd higher than in 2019. We note that although the Chinese economy is currently recovering more slowly than expected, estimates of its growth (including in the forecasts of the IMF and the Asian Development Bank) in November-December were revised upward. The IEA’s forecasts, according to which the demand for oil in this country in 2024 will increase to 17.1 million bpd from 16.4 million bpd in 2023, are also explained by the expectation that the growth rate of industrial production in China will accelerate.
In 2024, global oil demand, according to agency estimates, will increase by another 1.06 million bpd, to 102.76 million bpd. Note that the OPEC forecast published the day before assumes a more significant increase – by 2.25 million b/d, to 104.36 million b/d. A significant difference in the forecasts of the IEA and OPEC has been recorded for the second year and is, among other things, explained by different ideas of the organizations about the future role of oil in the global energy balance (see Kommersant on October 10).
In terms of global production, the IEA has raised its oil forecast for 2023: it is now expected that it will increase by 1.8 million b/d, to 101.9 million b/d (November estimates – 1.7 million b/d and 101.8 million b/d). In 2024, due to countries outside OPEC+, production could increase by 1.2 million bpd, to a record 103.2 million bpd.
According to IEA estimates, oil production in the Russian Federation in November decreased slightly, by 30 thousand bpd (compared to the October level) and amounted to about 9.5 million bpd. Against the backdrop of falling world prices and reduced export volumes, Russia’s revenues from oil supplies abroad in November decreased by 17%, to $15.2 billion.
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