Generating companies cannot significantly reduce fuel consumption at thermal power plants amid sanctions
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As Kommersant found out, power engineers are asking the Ministry of Energy to reduce targets for specific fuel consumption for electricity generation. Generating companies cannot significantly improve the efficiency of thermal power plants due to the unavailability of imported equipment against the backdrop of sanctions and the lack of serial production of gas turbines in the Russian Federation. It will not be possible to significantly reduce fuel consumption at thermal power plants in a short time against the backdrop of sanctions, experts agree, suggesting that they develop nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants.
The “Council of Energy Producers” (CPE, a lobby of large generating companies of the Russian Federation) submitted its proposals to the Ministry of Energy on changing the energy strategy of Russia. In particular, the PPA considers it necessary to adjust the “target values of the electricity production efficiency indicator”, namely, the indicator of specific reference fuel consumption (RCF) for electricity supply. The issue was discussed at a meeting of the State Council Commission on Energy on July 6 (Kommersant saw the protocol).
The current energy strategy of Russia was published in the summer of 2020 and is designed for the period up to 2035. In the fall of 2021, Vladimir Putin instructed to update the document and expand the planning horizon until 2050. The Ministry of Energy plans to complete the development of a new energy strategy in the second half of this year.
In 2019, the average COF at TPPs in Russia was 306.2 g of standard fuel per 1 kWh (gee/kWh). The indicator should decrease to 285 gee/kWh in 2024 and 255 gee/kWh in 2035, according to the current energy strategy. However, the EIT doubts the possibility of achieving such indicators. The Association proposes to revise the target URUTs taking into account sanctions restrictions, the lack of serial production of gas turbines of medium and large capacity in the Russian Federation, the closure of power units on imported turbines due to manufacturers’ refusal to service equipment. The PPA also advises once again to compare the plans of machine builders for the production of turbines and their actual capabilities. At the same time, in order to develop the industry and replace inefficient energy equipment, it is necessary to clearly identify sources of financing and increase the investment attractiveness of the fuel and energy complex.
The SPE did not answer Kommersant’s question about the more optimal, from their point of view, indicators of URUT. They only reported that now the Ministry of Energy is discussing the document being formed with industry communities and experts, including in several possible scenarios.
In order to achieve an average fuel consumption of 255–285 g/kWh for the power plant fleet, the share of combined cycle gas plants (CCGT) in electricity generation should be from half to two thirds, according to Sergey Rozhenko from Kept.
Without mass production of gas turbines, it is impossible and quite costly to achieve such a volume of inputs, he believes. In 2022, the volume of thermal power plants on the obsolete steam-power cycle was 122 GW (73.7% of the total capacity of thermal power plants), and their share in electricity generation was 63.5%, according to the REA of the Ministry of Energy. It would be more rational to move on to regional goals, according to Mr. Rozhenko: for example, to the construction of a CCGT unit to meet the growth in demand in the south or the Far East, as well as in those areas where this has a significant effect on lowering prices.
Power units on gas turbines are the most important technology for reducing the fuel consumption at TPPs in Russia, since gas dominates the “fuel basket” of power plants, says independent analyst Yuri Melnikov. However, there are other possibilities – for example, the replacement of the least efficient steam power units with newer thermal power plants or low-carbon hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants.
At the same time, the EIT considers it necessary to update the strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation with a low level of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050.
It was approved in the fall of 2021 and was designed for technologies to which access is limited due to sanctions. “The need for significant spending on the energy transition is in doubt,” the EIT believes, recalling that it is planned to spend 1–2% of GDP on the activities of the low-carbon development strategy. As “Kommersant” wrote, the strategy assumed a significant reduction in emissions in the electric power industry, for which it was proposed, among other things, to increase the share of renewable energy sources. The document is currently being revised.
The target of 255 GHGs set for 2035 in the current energy strategy will not be achieved, the director of the Association for the Development of Renewable Energy (lobby for investors in renewable energy) Alexei Zhikharev is sure. “Given the characteristics of the already planned TPP modernization projects, the actual figure will exceed the planned one by more than 10%,” he predicts. 5%”.
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