GDP is growing by estimates

In January 2023, Russian GDP grew by 0.6% by December 2022, excluding seasonal and calendar factors, after declining by 0.6% in December against November, analysts at the VEB Institute under the leadership of Andrey Klepach, chief economist at VEB.RF, calculated. Based on these data, they reported a “resumption of economic growth.” Note that this estimate of GDP is noticeably better than that made by the Ministry of Economy – earlier (also seasonally excluded) they reported 0.2% GDP growth in January versus December.

In annual terms, the January decline in GDP at the VEB Institute was estimated at 3.3% after a decline of 4.4% in December. The estimate of the Ministry of Economy is minus 3.2% and minus 4.2%, respectively. “Economic activity picked up noticeably in January. Consumer demand has also grown significantly. Retail sales showed a record high monthly growth – by more than 6% compared to December, ”explains at the VEB Institute.

As Kommersant noted, in fact, the traditional December surge in demand was postponed to January (see Kommersant of March 1). The jump in demand continued further – throughout the first quarter (see “Kommersant” dated March 23). VEB analysts note that this growth was largely financed by bank deposits. Expenditures associated with previously acquired housing were actively growing – for the purchase of building materials and furniture. The sales of passenger cars also demonstrated high growth. Growth in demand for catering services resumed. Wholesale sales also grew steadily – since the middle of last year they increased by 15%. The transportation of goods has grown in almost all modes of transport, except for air.

At the same time, according to the VEB Institute, in January, industrial output declined after growing over the previous three months. “However, industries that are more focused on state defense orders have resumed active growth,” the analysts conclude.

It should be noted that although the consensus forecast of analysts does not yet imply economic growth in 2023, the head of the Ministry of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov is convinced that it will take place. “The growth of the economy and investment will be. In the direction of improvement, we will revise the estimates of real incomes of the population. The economy has sources of development, and the main one is domestic demand,” he said on March 17 at the RSPP, announcing the department’s April forecast.

Artem Chugunov