GDP is getting smaller and simpler – Newspaper Kommersant No. 147 (7348) of 08/15/2022
[ad_1]
Russia’s GDP shrank by 4% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022. This is the official estimate of Rosstat, published last Friday. “It appears that the resilience of the Russian energy sector has softened the impact of Western sanctions. Monthly data show that mining production fell just 2% q/q. in the second quarter. In the second quarter, oil production recovered strongly after a decline of 8% m / m in April,” Capital Economics explains a slight (unlike expected in March-May) decline in the economy in the second quarter.
The figures on the structure of GDP production and the change compared to the first quarter, taking into account the seasonality of statistics, will be published on September 9. However, analysts have already made estimates based on previously released Rosstat data on output in the main industries and data on tax revenues from the Ministry of Finance, believing that “the picture will be similar.” The calculations of economists of the Telegram-channel “Hard Numbers” fix: in the “year-on-year” dimension, the main contribution to the decline in GDP was made by wholesale and retail trade (minus 1.8 percentage points, p.p.), the financial sector (minus 1.1 p.p.). p.), net taxes (minus 0.8 p.p.) and processing (minus 0.4 p.p.). Capital Economics came to a similar conclusion, noting that output in manufacturing industries, which are most dependent on foreign resources, fell more than 10% — as did retail sales, when consumer confidence collapsed amid a strong inflationary shock in March and monetary conditions tightened up.
The most noteworthy of all, including from the point of view of assessing the consequences of sanctions on the structure of the economy, is its intra-annual dynamics. According to Capital Economics, in the second (compared to the first quarter of 2022, seasonally adjusted), GDP decreased by 6%, and according to analysts from the Solid Numbers Telegram channel, by 5.6% (see chart). Construction and agriculture grew by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively, the financial sector and wholesale and retail trade fell the most — by 17% and 14% respectively. The largest contribution to the decline in GDP for the quarter was made by trade (minus 2.1 p.p.), the financial sector (minus 1.4 p.p.), processing (minus 0.7 p.p.) and mining (minus 0.5 p.p.). The positive contribution to the seasonally adjusted GDP dynamics was mainly made by services (see also “Kommersant” dated August 10) and agriculture.
[ad_2]
Source link