Gasoline was afraid of the damper – Kommersant

Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia reached the highest level since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. AI-92 and AI-95 rose in price for the day at SPIMEX by 1.9% and 1.7%, to 49.7 thousand rubles. and 54.9 thousand rubles. respectively. The rise in fuel prices occurred after the media reported on the plans of the Ministry of Finance to reduce damper payments to oil workers. The ministry denied this. The discussion of such a scenario was confirmed on April 26 by relevant Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

The cost of AI-92 and AI-95 at SPIMEX increased on April 26 by 1.9% and 1.7%, to 49.7 thousand rubles. and 54.9 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, according to the data of the trading platform. Prices for summer diesel fuel increased by 1.7% to 52.1 thousand rubles. per ton.

Exchange gasoline quotes have come close to the pre-sanction values ​​of February 2022. So, for example, on February 22 last year, AI-92 and AI-95 were traded at 52.3 thousand rubles. and 54.7 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, summer diesel fuel cost 56.3 thousand rubles. per ton. Already after the outbreak of hostilities, gasoline prices were at their lowest levels, with the exception of summer, when demand for gasoline is activated due to holidays.

Due to Western sanctions against Russia for the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, many large foreign traders stopped purchasing oil and oil products, as a result, against the backdrop of a fuel surplus, its cost on the domestic market plummeted. In general, prices remained low until the spring of this year, when the weakening of the ruble led to an increase in netbacks, and oil companies gradually overcame difficulties in exporting petroleum products.

Although Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry do not see obvious prerequisites for rising fuel prices, it began to rise in price after reports Bloomberg that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Energy are discussing another reduction in subsidies for the damper for gasoline and diesel fuel. A damper is a mechanism to contain prices in the domestic market through budgetary payments to oil companies that receive them if the export netback is higher than the conditional (fixed) price for fuel in the domestic market.

According to Bloomberg, the authorities could raise the notional price by 50%, which could lead to a situation where the damper could go into negative territory.

The Ministry of Finance denied such a proposal, but on April 26, the government’s plans to adjust the damper were confirmed by relevant Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

The damper was last adjusted in April of this year, but this did not fully meet the expectations of the Ministry of Finance. According to Reuters calculations, oil companies can receive 115 billion rubles for April fuel deliveries to the domestic market. compensation against 120 billion rubles. in March. According to Kommersant’s sources in the industry, the authorities are indeed discussing a reduction in damper subsidies, but the size of the reduction has not yet been determined.

One of Kommersant’s interlocutors claims that the Ministry of Finance is going to cut payments on the damper by 200 billion rubles. until the end of the year. For comparison, in 2022, payments exceeded 2 trillion rubles.

Wholesale and exchange prices for gasoline are still recovering from a period of extremely low prices in the second half of 2022 – the first quarter of 2023, Boris Sinitsyn from Renaissance Capital notes. If in the first quarter the average exchange price was 30% lower than the indicative one from the damper mechanism (which, in fact, unties domestic prices from international ones), then after an increase in February-April to almost 50 thousand rubles. per ton, the difference has narrowed to 12%, slightly above the average for the past three years (excluding 2022).

Dmitry Kozlov