Gasoline prices are preparing to take off: the authorities gave a reason

The rise in fuel prices will not be able to contain even the regulatory mechanisms of the state

The wholesale cost of fuel on domestic commodity exchanges continues to break records. AI-95 quotes have renewed their historical maximum, and AI-92 prices have reached the highest level in the last six months. Ordinary car owners, theoretically, should not be affected by the rise in gasoline prices: their pockets are protected by a damper, through which fuel producers receive compensation from the state for maintaining stable prices at gas stations. True, from September, officials will reduce damper payments to oil workers, which risks pushing the retail price of gasoline at gas stations to the level of inflation and even higher.

At the beginning of summer, the quotes for a ton of AI-95 at the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange rose above 62 thousand rubles. For the European part of Russia, such prices have become a record in the history of trading. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, a ton of 95 cost only 40 thousand rubles, so the growth in fuel tariffs has already exceeded 50%. AI-92 also went up in price: a ton of this grade reached 55 thousand rubles, which was the maximum since October last year.

There are several reasons for a noticeable increase in wholesale quotations for fuel. First of all, the growth in the exchange value of fuel was caused by an excess of demand for raw materials and a simultaneous decrease in the supply of large batches of fuel from the main producers of petroleum products. In January-April, the output of gasoline by domestic refineries increased by about 7%. However, then a decline began: in May, fuel production fell by 6.4%, and in the first week of June, according to Rosstat, gasoline production in the country fell by another 5.6%.

On the one hand, experts urge not to create panic due to the increase in the wholesale cost of fuel. On the eve of the summer season, during which raw materials traditionally increase in price due to increased demand for energy resources, most Russian refineries are shut down for scheduled repairs, which leads to a shortage in the sales market. As Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Novak explained earlier, in our country, part of the factories have begun a regular modernization of production capacities, which led to a decrease in processing. “This does not affect the provision of domestic needs – we have enough oil products,” says Novak. According to representatives of the Ministry of Energy, stabilization of the cost of fuel should be expected in the very near future.

On the other hand, analysts point out that the growth in fuel prices coincided with the statement by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov about the government’s intention to reduce the fuel damper, which is used to compensate for the financial losses of oil companies, which allow maintaining the retail price of gasoline. According to him, at present the margin of processing enterprises is 8 thousand rubles per ton, which is four times more than before. “It turns out that the growth of producers’ income is provided from the budget,” Siluanov complains. According to him, as a result of adjusting the damper, deductions to oilmen from the treasury will be reduced by 30-50 billion rubles a month. At the same time, it will be important for the Federal Antimonopoly Service to control that, after the reduction in compensation, producers “do not try to raise prices for petroleum products.” In the first version of the legislative act, it was supposed to change the amount of damper payments from April 1, but then the correction was postponed to September 1.

Meanwhile, as Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, believes, it is possible that the reduction in the surcharge will force domestic energy companies to compensate for the loss of income by increasing prices in the Russian market. The unprofitability of the production and sale of finished fuel within the country can lead to an increase in prices not only in the wholesale, but also in the retail sector.

So far, the situation at gas stations looks relatively calm. According to Rosstat, since the beginning of the year, the overall increase in the cost of gasoline is still less than the level of cumulative inflation (1.2% versus 2.5%). If prices are rising, then somewhere around 10 kopecks per liter per month, which does not greatly affect the overall costs of ordinary motorists. However, in a number of regions there is a much greater rise in price – for example, in Novosibirsk, according to local publications, in recent weeks, the cost of fuel at gas stations has increased by an average of 50 kopecks, which is an alarming bell for owners of personal vehicles in Siberia.

As practice shows, in Russia a much more important factor in regulating pricing policy in the consumer market, and especially in the fuel market, is not the introduction of new control mechanisms, but the fulfillment of the initiated conditions,” says Andrey Loboda, economist, director of communications at BitRiver. Following the rise in Novosibirsk prices may follow in other Russian regions. By the beginning of autumn, prices for AI-92 and AI-95 throughout the country may increase by at least 1 ruble, and then retail fuel tariffs will definitely overtake official inflation.