From “USSR 2.0” to “Nation Z” – Newspaper Kommersant No. 215 (7416) of 11/21/2022

The Progressive Politics Foundation presented the report “Images of the Future for Russia: Scenarios, Forks and Assessments”, within which four lines of the country’s development after the “collapse of the world order” were modeled. Experts consider the most likely scenario “USSR 2.0” – an attempt to “reproduce the Soviet experience of existence.” Also, Russia can follow the path of “NEP 2.0”, become the “Eurasian pole” or focus on the formation of the “Z nation”. Most likely, the country is waiting for a mixture of all these “images”, political analysts warn.

Presenting the report at a press conference on November 18, Oleg Bondarenko, director of the foundation, recalled that the discussion around the “image of the future” of Russia was initiated by an article by the head of the presidential department for ensuring the activities of the State Council, Alexander Kharichev, in which such concepts as “state-novel”, “Motherland with a laser sword”, “pie” and others (see Kommersant of November 8). “Our report is built on the principle of the authors’ discussion,” Mr. Bondarenko explained. These authors also included Ilya Grashchenkov, President of the Center for Regional Policy Development, and Sergei Serebrennikov, Professor at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

The “most obvious” scenario is “USSR 2.0” – this is the locking of the state in itself, said Mr. Serebrennikov. True, it is impossible to create an “absolutely closed” economic system in the modern world, so we are talking more about a “self-sufficient” system, such as, for example, the American and Chinese ones. According to the economist, this “image” can be brought to life by overcoming the structural imbalances of the Russian economy: by increasing labor productivity and introducing state price regulation. To achieve technological sovereignty, industrial espionage will have to be legalized, the professor noted, because it ensured the rapid development of the Chinese economy. The scenario assumes global investment in infrastructure – “new cities, roads and ecosystems that will provide employment, population growth and reverse relocation.”

The social contour of “USSR 2.0” is a return to the Soviet system of education and medicine, Sergey Serebrennikov continued: “If the borders are closed for those who wish to be treated in Europe, this will give impetus to the development of domestic medicine.” Finally, the national culture and Russian history must be “reflected, legalized and recognized”, which will lead to the emergence of a “new self-identity”. According to the expert, in this case, we can expect “new Sholokhovs, Mayakovskys and Eisensteins.”

“NEP 2.0” – this is the most extensive, but vector “image” that opposes the “new Gosplan”, said Ilya Grashchenkov: “If in the first case we are again drawn how many tons of galoshes and where to ship, then there still remain market needs, the choice between galoshes and sneakers.” The Russian market must be restructured taking into account three components – the fourth industrial revolution, technological and scientific cooperation with countries for which Russia can become a “beacon”, as well as a new attitude towards people. This “image” can be brought to life by “maximizing freedom within the country,” the political scientist believes: “The more pressure is exerted on us from the outside, trying to drive us into autarky, the more important it is to liberalize the internal space. There must be a class of free men.” We are talking about “progressive patriots” who “do not hesitate to criticize the state,” but at the same time “offer and can take fate into their own hands,” Mr. Grashchenkov explained.

“In NEP 2.0, the idea of ​​just capitalism is important – as you stomp, you will burst. When you develop a technology, you have to understand whether you will become a billionaire, or until the end of your days will offer ideas in a “sharashka” that will never be implemented. Now Russian capitalism is showing maximum alienation: as soon as you did something, they squeezed it out. Or the state has developed some industries and does not let anyone in,” says Ilya Grashchenkov.

The scenario of the “Eurasian pole” has a drawback, since “China is very seriously claiming this role,” said Oleg Bondarenko. To compete with it, “it is very important to have your own economic development model”: “Then our country can become an alternative center, the demand for which is in various parts of the world. Not everyone wants to see the same Mickey Mouse with different skin colors and eye shapes. This “image” is based on the ideology of traditional values ​​that are close to Asia, the political scientist added.

Finally, the most “debatable” scenario – “Z Nation” – this is a variant of “national building in Russian”, continued Oleg Bondarenko. The key here should be “real, not declarative postulation of family values ​​and stimulation of the birth rate.” “The level of divorces and abortions in our country is the highest in Europe, so you need to start from the head, create the conditions and atmosphere for Russia to give birth and not die out,” the expert explained. Also, this “image” suggests the prospect of legalization of weapons, the nationalization of elites and “Russian repatriation”. “Of course, those who left need to be returned, these are people who know how to work with their heads, earn money and invent. But for this it is necessary to create a cult of labor and honest success so that the country can assemble its own aircraft, and not only engage in industrial espionage and gray imports,” Mr. Bondarenko noted.

However, one should not assume that any of the presented “images” can be embodied in its pure form, Oleg Bondarenko summed up. In his opinion, Russia is waiting for an “eclectic combination” of individual aspects of all these scenarios, each of which may be relevant at one time or another.

Andrew Ashes