Friendliness towards Russia in the post-Soviet space continues to decline
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The friendliness of communication regimes in the post-Soviet space continues to decline, according to the annual rating of the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRK), presented on Thursday at a meeting of the Federation Council commission on information policy. Last year, attitudes towards Russia noticeably cooled in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, although the regimes there are still assessed as “friendly”. Things have become worse in communications with “relatively friendly” Georgia. Finally, the negative trend continued in countries with “unfriendly regimes” – in Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as in Moldova, which came into their company for the first time.
The results of the report were presented by Valentina Komleva, Deputy Director for Scientific Work at NIIRK. She recalled that the study evaluates 74 “friendliness” indicators, which are combined into 12 groups with different influences: foreign policy, economic, interregional, educational, scientific, cultural, media, non-profit, youth and religious communications, attitude towards Russians, as well as freedom of movement between countries. The maximum “friendliness” of the mode is 100 points, the minimum is 100 points with a negative sign.
In 2023, South Ossetia (93.5 points), Belarus (87.6) and Abkhazia (81.4) were at the top of the ranking. Since the partially recognized Transcaucasian republics were assessed by experts for the first time, the leadership was actually retained by Belarus, which scored 88.4 points at the end of 2022. Communications with Kyrgyzstan (60.3), Tajikistan (58.7) and Uzbekistan (55.2) remained stably “friendly” – Ms. Komleva classified this group of neighbors as Russia’s allies.
In the category of partner countries, negative dynamics are already noticeable. Thus, the “friendliness” of the communication regime in Azerbaijan decreased from 57 to 50.1 points (primarily due to the situation in the South Caucasus and strategic partnership with Turkey), from 58.4 to 50 points – in Kazakhstan (due to cooperation with countries unfriendly to Russia and a new interpretation of historical events) and from 58.3 to 46 points – in Armenia (due to the behavior of the elite blaming Russia for its own failures). The only partner from among the countries with a “friendly” regime that maintained last year’s result was Turkmenistan (47.1 points).
Georgia found itself in the border zone. If in 2022 experts noted a “thaw” in relations with her, then at the end of 2023 the assessments worsened, falling from 24.2 to 12 points. As noted in the study, this was a consequence of the international position of Tbilisi, which supports Russia’s opponents on all platforms. On the other hand, economic and civil relations between the countries intensified, in particular, air traffic was opened. Therefore, the authors of the report note a split within the Georgian elite and note the special significance of the upcoming parliamentary elections in October.
Based on the results of 2023, Moldova dropped out of the list of countries with a “relatively friendly” communication regime. If in the previous rating it scored 8.3 points, then in the current rating it scored minus 16.1 points, that is, it dropped into the “unfriendly” category. According to the report’s conclusions, hostility towards Russia is actually provoked from outside. The authors, in particular, emphasize the expansion of Romanian influence and the “erosion of statehood” of the republic.
Finally, the list of countries with an unfriendly attitude towards the Russian Federation includes Estonia (minus 57.7 points), Lithuania (minus 59.9), Latvia (minus 63.9) and Ukraine (minus 89.6), where Russophobia and hostility towards Russia, new restrictions are being introduced, etc. Moreover, communications with these neighbors have deteriorated at the end of 2023, and most strongly with Latvia – by 18.1 points, as follows from the rating.
“We have a stable situation in only five countries. At the same time, alarming trends are emerging almost everywhere in terms of scores,” summed up Valentina Komleva. “Communication regimes are increasingly under the influence of political regimes, practically becoming their derivatives. And if society resists, conditions are created where people are simply afraid to behave differently.”
The expert also outlined the underlying reasons for the deterioration of attitudes towards the Russian Federation, the main of which is the change in generations of elites: “People who had no experience of life in the USSR, who did not participate in the formation of post-Soviet agreements, and who very boldly, without assessing the consequences, rethink the role of Russia.” At the same time, the public, according to Ms. Komleva, does not quickly change its worldview. As a result, contradiction and social tension arise, which result in a “cognitive war with one’s own population,” its “rewiring,” added Ms. Komleva.
Among other reasons, she named the collision of cultural and civilizational worlds and the increasing role of economic factors. “Relations with Russia are becoming more pragmatic and rational. The concept of fraternal peoples is fading into the background. Countries are predominantly poor, so foreign policy vectors determine investments,” summed up Valentina Komleva.
The head of the Federation Council commission on information policy, Alexei Pushkov, noted that none of the ranked countries showed improvements in their attitude towards Russia, and the deterioration, on the contrary, became stable: “Azerbaijan – minus 7 points. This is a very serious figure for a state that, in general, has no complaints against us and does not consider us as an enemy. Kazakhstan – minus 8 points. Our supporting transit country.” According to the senator, this is a reason to “seriously think about it.”
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