foreign trade surplus bounces back

According to the Bank of Russia, the current account surplus of the balance of payments in July amounted to $1.8 billion – against $17.8 billion a year ago and $1.2 billion in June this year (the Central Bank significantly improved its first estimate for June – a deficit of $1.4 billion ). The July figure is “close to the historical norm for the last decade after the anomalous 2022 surplus,” notes Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics.

In January-July, the current account surplus was estimated at $25.2 billion against $165.4 billion a year ago – a decisive role in the dynamics of the indicator was played by a decrease in the positive balance of trade (by 68.4%) against the backdrop of a decrease in the value of exports and an increase in the value of imports. The deficit in the balance of foreign trade in services more than doubled in January-July due to the revival of the tourist flow abroad. The balance of payments was supported by a decrease in dividend payments by companies to non-residents. At the same time, Russian organizations increased foreign assets thanks to their foreign investments.

In July, the balance of trade in goods amounted to $ 7.3 billion – the surplus here is declining, but is in no hurry to move into the negative area, despite the recovery of imports following domestic demand and the decline in exports, analysts of the Solid Figures Telegram channel notice. Meanwhile, the root causes of exchange rate changes are “decisions on monetary and budgetary policy that determine domestic demand (including for imports) and capital outflow,” notes Alexander Isakov. “The actions of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank do not give visible results. It is difficult for investors to resist the facts when the supply of foreign currency is too small to offset the strong demand for it,” says Vladislav Silaev from Alfa Capital Management Company.

Yegor Susin from Gazprombank, based on data from the Central Bank’s review of financial sector risks, concludes that the foreign trade balance in foreign currency for June turned out to be negative in the amount of $0.1 billion, and the entire trade surplus was formed in rubles. “This means that net sales of foreign currency on the Russian market should be insignificant,” the expert believes. In general, the outflow of capital through the ruble and the change in the structure of settlements lead to the fact that the inflow of foreign currency into the market from foreign trade has zeroed out, Egor Susin believes.

Artem Chugunov